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Santa will continue to deliver - Stock Trader's Almanac

Published Dec 01, 2023 08:58AM ET
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© Reuters. Santa will continue to deliver - Stock Trader's Almanac
 
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November was a breathtaking month for stocks, with the S&P 500 surging 9% led by Information Technology. It was the fourth-best monthly gain on the S&P going back to 1950. Given the huge surge, there are worries that December's usual gains will be taken away from. The Stock Trader's Almanac ran the numbers and said this is usually not the case.

The Almanac looked at the top three Novembers (1962, 1980 and 2020) and found that December also saw gains in 2 out of the 3 cases, with 1980 being the lone down case.

Meanwhile, also going back to 1950, stocks were up the month of December 74% of the time.

"The top 10 and top 20 Novembers were followed by up December 70% of the time, though average gains are a little above average for the top ten at 1.8%," the Almanac states. "So, all in all, big November gains take very little if anything away from historically strong Decembers. In short, gains beget gains."

The Almanac also said it is hard to understand all the bearishness on the Street as it is seasonally the most bullish time of the year.

"And seasonality remains on track and firing on all pistons as does the 4-Year Cycle," they added. "Market internals and technicals continue to be supportive. Those that may remember the 1990s will recall that the market can flourish, driven by innovation and technology – can you say AI? – even when interest rates are at current levels or even higher. The bond market continues to signal a declining trend in rates with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields retreating off the recent highs."

Santa will continue to deliver - Stock Trader's Almanac
 

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Comments (10)
Stan Smith
Stan Smith Dec 01, 2023 11:31AM ET
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The stock rally is certainly based on fairytales and not reality
Ken Roth
Ken Roth Dec 01, 2023 11:22AM ET
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Looking forward to the santa rally...here we go.
Tony Sayegh
Tony Sayegh Dec 01, 2023 10:24AM ET
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POS fake market. Wars and mayehm and thr US is doing well burried in debt. Market WILL fall in December…
Tiger Isback
Tiger Isback Dec 01, 2023 10:24AM ET
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After Opex
Server Admin
Server Admin Dec 01, 2023 9:52AM ET
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I notice they mentioned 1980 as the outlier in the three year comparison, but went on to stop themselves short at discussing odds (2 out of 3), rather than discuss if or how 2023 may share similarities with one year over any other. The odds alone that 1980 was the outlier means nothing if 2023 shares more in common with 1980 than the other two years being included.
Brad Dantone
Brad Dantone Dec 01, 2023 9:45AM ET
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If you include Jeff’s guidance with your research, you’ll improve your return. 💰💰💰
adalat khan
adalat khan Dec 01, 2023 9:29AM ET
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send me one lac dollar
Casador Del Oso
Casador Del Oso Dec 01, 2023 9:24AM ET
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This time is different.
Garrett Ogle
Garrett Ogle Dec 01, 2023 9:17AM ET
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The world is in different dynamics in 2023.
Mustafa Aktas
Mustafa Aktas Dec 01, 2023 9:16AM ET
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Look at risk reward buying here. You definitely do not know about risk management.
John Lakran
John Lakran Dec 01, 2023 9:14AM ET
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Dont you just love these predictions ignoring actual fundamentals, earnings, business climate, obscene debt public and private as well as historic valuations well above averages. Yeah Santa rally is all but guaranteed because well the market only goes up.
 
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