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Russia, China property will push emerging market corporate default rate above 10%, JPMorgan says

Published 07/21/2022, 09:19 AM
Updated 07/21/2022, 10:02 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers renovate a building of the Shanghai Exhibition Center in Shanghai, China May 27, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song
JPM
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LONDON (Reuters) -Emerging markets' corporate default rates this year are expected to hit 10% for the first time since the financial crisis, analysts at U.S. investment bank JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) forecast in a note on Thursday.

The bank raised its emerging markets corporate high yield default forecast to 10.7% from 8.5% for 2022, the second hike in a year, due to the "continued deterioration in the China property space" and more Russian companies being affected by "sanctions and/or technical default" due to the war.

"Notably, the main contributor is unsurprisingly the China property segment, where the default rate is expected to reach close to 40% this year," added JPMorgan's Alisa Meyers.

Lockdowns in Chinese cities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic reduced property sector liquidity. There have been so far 24 defaults or distressed exchanges in China for $41 billion.

The bank added that Chinese developers defaulted on their entire bond stock even after extending short-term debt maturities.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers renovate a building of the Shanghai Exhibition Center in Shanghai, China May 27, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song

"Despite all the chatter about government support, we have only seen some tangible backings to housing demand," the report added.

Also, most Russian banks that issued eurobonds failed to make payments since March "due to restrictions introduced against these banks in the U.S. and elsewhere globally".

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