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Wall St sinks after weak data, hawkish Fed comments

Published 01/18/2023, 07:20 AM
Updated 01/18/2023, 07:21 PM
© Reuters. Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Sinéad Carew and Shreyashi Sanyal

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow lost almost 2% on Wednesday, their biggest daily drops in more than a month, after weak economic data fueled recession worries while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials soured investor moods further.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought.

"It seems that investors are finally coming to the conclusion that getting inflation under control is not a free lunch and that all the tightening the Fed has had to do to get inflation moving in the right direction, comes with economic costs," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

"Investors may have had this false belief that this soft landing scenario was a higher probability event than it actually is."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 138.10 points, or 1.24%, to 10,957.01.

Wednesday's decline was Nasdaq's first loss in eight sessions while the S&P and the down both saw their biggest daily percentage declines since Dec. 15.

With Wall Street's major averages showing gains so far for 2023, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA research, said some investors saw weak data as an opportunity to take profits.

"The market was overbought. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall.

The weakest sectors on Wednesday were the defensive consumer staples, down 2.7%, and utilities, which fell 2.4%. In comparison, the best performers were more growth heavy sectors such as communications services, down 0.9%, and technology, down 1.3%.

Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel.

And late in the afternoon, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said that he expects the Fed to raise rates a few more times this year although he reiterated earlier comments that he's ready for the U.S. central bank to move to a slower pace of rate hikes due to signs of cooling inflation.

The Fed commentary also highlighted the disparity between the U.S. central bank's estimate of its terminal rate and market expectations, which were of the rate peaking at 4.88% by June. Traders are now betting on a 25-basis point rate hike in February.

Investors are also focused on the fourth-quarter earnings season as a window into how corporate America is doing against the backdrop of higher interest rates.

Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of the year.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Inc shares rose 3.3% after reporting data which demonstrated the effectiveness of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:PNC) shares tumbled 6% after it missed estimates for its fourth-quarter profit.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.88-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.98-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

© Reuters. Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

On U.S. exchanges 11.76 billion shares changed hands on Wednesday compared with the 10.45 billion average for the last 20 sessions.

Latest comments

Members of G7 are under pressure, They need fresh investment to raise from bottom, otherwise print more paper notes, Microsoft, Tesala, Amazon... You see, cutting expenses, short term many will bite sand
The economy is sinking !! But still Fed see's need of agressive rate hikes. Unbelievable!!!
0.75% rate hikes are aggressive.  0.25% hikes are not.
Pow wow chicken out . He would rather do the long drawn out .25 than to quickly stay the .75 course and get it over
  The Fed should be doing what's best for the US economy, not what's quickest.
This is ridiculous Jerome. There's a snake in the house. Stop beating it with a stick every few months and shoot it.
42 trillion dollars created since 2020 64% of it went to those in the top 1% of wealth
Biden did it all.
Starting with trump
 Started with Obama, More debt than all previous Presidents COMBINED.
  GFC started under anti-regulation Bush.
So, that's the end to the promised 2023 recovery.
lol
maybe at the end of the year, but yes, "irrational exhuberence" in the market since beginning of January.    There is no "up" position here.  Inflation high, Fed will hike rates further.  inflation low, its because the economy is slowing.   niether one is good for equities.  50bps or 25bps in Feb doesnt matter, economy is slowing, growth is going to go negative to get to 2% inflation.
manipulation with dark pool at it's best ...wow.
Why would the feds make commnets like that when inflation is coming down? Why
  Inflation rate is almost back down to mid-2021 levels, before Russia started massing troops along Ukraine's border and before Russia really weaponized energy exports.
 i dont understand the point.  you are suggesting that the FED goal is now to only match inflation of 2021?   Russia has nothing to do with anything.  We havent bought Russian oil or nnatgas in nearly a year now, no western nation has.   Clearly that is not the source of inflation.  Administrative mismanagement (calling inflation transitory in 2021 and not doing anything) and over spending for Covid-19 in give-aways ( employee stay-at home weekly checks due to unnecceary lockdowns, employer PPP loan forgiveness, etc) and further politician buying votes with more give-aways like loan forgiveness,  leaving $1B of equipment in Afghanistan that had to be replaced, sending billions to Ukraine,  keeping an open border where now we have to provide healthcare, education food and shelter for 3M people who are not on tax roles or payrolls. Vote only for politicians who will vote for a balanced budget ammendment.
  You said, "inflation ... was created by DEM spending".  I'm showing correlation of inflation to Russian aggression.   Whether it's also causation, ...
SirajAhmed
you would think it would be priced in when they literally say the exact same thing each time 🙄
The market expected the Fed to change its tune.  It didn't, therefore today's drop.
 well finally something we can agree on.
Fed talk is part of the scam. Always has been
It just Fed adjusting market expectations when it got too far from the Fed's expectations.  Better to do it over time than all at once during a FOMC meeting.
We should be no higher than 2800 on s&p rite now. 200 a share times 14X is 2800. And that’s generous. Jesus Christ are we grossly overvalued by 1000 s of points. Simple math.
You are way too low. 220x16=3520
i would agree with JimmyD you are a bit low.   210x15x = 3150.   even that may be low as while 15x is historical over 100 years, it seems a bit low in recent years, where market seems willing to pay more.   210x 18x = 3780, but 18 is probably a bit rich.  maybe get to 3500. Mike WIlson nis saying 195x15 = 2925 or ~3000 but that may be a bit low.  not sure i will wait for that.
market rather lower
Dow up on upity up up tum tee tum and fiddle de dee.
Read the article instead if mindlessly complaining
Of*
Shocking
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