(Bloomberg) -- Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) say a complete China reopening will drive a 20% gain in Chinese equities, citing signs that the government may be starting to prepare for a relaxation of its Covid-Zero policy after a key leadership summit.
The removal of Covid restrictions could be “one of the most visible, long-awaited, and powerful upside catalysts for the market,” strategists including Kinger Lau wrote in a note dated Sunday. They expect the government to start to relax rules in the second quarter of 2023.
Chinese stocks had an epic rally last week, fueled by unverified social media posts about reopening plans, after four straight months of losses. An increase in flights and the development of an inhalable vaccine are encouraging news, Goldman said. Health officials though have reiterated the nation’s Covid-Zero policy on Saturday.
The market will pre-trade any actual reopening about a month in advance, and the positive momentum may last for two to three months, the Goldman strategists wrote. Domestic cyclicals and consumer sectors will be the major beneficiaries, they said.
READ: What to Watch in China’s Potential Covid Zero Exit: Taking Stock
A Goldman basket of reopening stocks -- retailers, airlines, hotels and restaurants -- has outperformed the MSCI China Index by 20% since July. There’s still “ample room for further valuation and fundamental recovery” if reopening momentum gathers pace, they wrote.
Last week, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index capped its best weekly gain since 2015. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300, the benchmark for mainland stocks, also jumped more than 6%.
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