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Alibaba dips on MS downgrade as PDD grabs spot of most valuable Chinese e-commerce firm

Published 12/01/2023, 07:45 AM
Updated 12/01/2023, 09:55 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Shopping trolley is seen in front of Alibaba logo in this illustration, July 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

(Reuters) -U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) Group Holding declined on Friday following a Morgan Stanley downgrade on concerns over slower turnaround in its key businesses, hours after PDD raced past its rival to become the most valuable Chinese e-commerce firm.

Alibaba's stock slipped 3.2% to $72.5, touching a fresh one-year low. The shares are down nearly 17% since the company last month posted in line second-quarter revenue and scrapped plans to spin off its cloud business.

Meanwhile, shares of PDD Holdings have surged this week following stellar quarterly results from the Temu parent. The company closed with a market capitalization of nearly $196 billion on Thursday, surpassing Alibaba's market value of $190.45 billion.

Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Alibaba to "equal-weight" from "overweight", flagging concerns over softness in its customer management revenue and cloud business due to sagging economic recovery in China.

They also noted uncertainties from Alibaba's decision to scrap the spin-off of its cloud business.

Morgan Stanley cut its price target on the stock to $90 from $110, the second lowest among analysts, as per LSEG data. The downgrade is the third in as many weeks by Wall Street brokerages.

Alibaba's U.S. shares, down about 18% so far this year, are set for their third consecutive year of losses.

On the other hand, Morgan Stanley named PDD as its top pick in the sector, saying the company is best placed to navigate the current economic environment with its heavy discounting steps.

"We expect PDD to continue to gain share in the domestic market thanks to its favorable business model amid consumers' behavior shift," Morgan Stanley's Eddy Wang noted, adding that its cross-border e-commerce business, Temu, is not fully valued by the market.

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PDD shares were down 2.1% at $144.4 but have surged almost 80% in 2023, handily outperforming its peers.

At 21.4, PDD has the highest forward price-to-earnings ratio among rivals including JD (NASDAQ:JD).com and Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) Holdings. Alibaba's forward PE was 7.62, according to LSEG estimates.

Latest comments

Haha this is beyond ridiculous. Once the retail has massively bought into PDD, they'll downgrade PDD and upgrade Alibaba
It's unbelievable that someone who is getting paid a big salary by MS has set a target price of $90 for $BABA.  Just their net cash and equities is $35/ share. And they make like $11 FCF/share. What do they mean? That BABA will produce cash only for 5-6 years with zero FCF/share growth? And then will go bankrupt? It's unbelievably stupid.
I love discount selling platforms when I'm buying, but when the platform makes money and the producers of the goods don't it's an unsustainable program.  So we reward the platforms and discount chains but cut the throats of most of the small and medium sized businesses actually driving the economy
that's why I'm a bot worried about pdd's business model. how long will that consumer business last especially with Chinas structural problems
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