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USD/JPY poised for potential rise amid market conditions

Published 05/20/2024, 03:28 AM
© Reuters.
- -- On Monday, market dynamics indicate a possible increase in the USD/JPY currency pair. Throughout May, the dollar has exhibited weakness, while risk sentiment has strengthened alongside anticipations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Despite this, markets are seeking a new catalyst beyond data to drive significant movements.

Soft figures are expected for existing home sales and durable goods orders this week, aligning with the general consensus. Similarly, the S&P PMIs set to release on Thursday are predicted to be subdued and are considered less critical compared to the ISM surveys.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 1 are anticipated to be revealing. The May meeting did not meet the expectations of those with a hawkish outlook, and since then, members like Neel Kashkari have hinted at the possibility of another rate hike if needed. The focal point of the minutes will likely be the committee's rationale for maintaining a generally optimistic view on disinflation, which could shape the relationship between future data and monetary policy.

Unless there are unexpected hints at rate hikes or an extremely dovish stance within the committee, the immediate effects on the foreign exchange (FX) market might be minimal. A period of low volatility and a "wait-and-see" approach is expected leading up to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release on May 31. The DXY is predicted to stabilize between 104 and 105 this week, with a slight skew towards the upside as the market could continue to reverse the post-CPI rally seen in pro-cyclical currencies.

Additional upward pressure on the dollar may arise from tightening in the oil market following the death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter accident and health concerns regarding Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz. However, the impact of these Middle East events on the market has been limited so far.

In a low-volatility environment, the yen typically underperforms as yen-funded carry trades gain popularity. Current short JPY positioning, representing 42% of open interest according to CFTC data, demonstrates this trend. This positioning has decreased from 54% a month prior. Market skepticism regarding the sustainability of Japan's FX interventions could make it challenging to predict a peak for USD/JPY. For the moment, a return to the 156.50 region, seen before the release of U.S. CPI data, is considered likely within the week. If the anticipated slowdown in Japanese inflation for April is confirmed on Friday, it could trigger a further ascent in the USD/JPY pair.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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