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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 9 - 13

Published 06/08/2014, 05:29 AM
Updated 06/08/2014, 05:29 AM
Dollar edges higher after U.S. jobs report - The dollar pushed higher against the other major currencies on Friday after the nonfarm payrolls report for May indicated that the U.S. labor market is continuing to gradually improve.

The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs last month, just under expectations for jobs growth of 218,000, while April's figure was revised to 282,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at a five-and-a-half year low of 6.3%.

EUR/USD initially touched a two-week high of 1.3677 following the release of the data, before pulling back to 1.3642 late Friday. For the week, the pair was 0.34% higher.

The U.S. jobs report came one day after the European Central Bank unveiled a package of measures to avert the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area, briefly sending the single currency to four month lows of 1.3502 against the dollar, before later erasing the day’s losses.

The ECB cut the main refinancing rate in the euro area to a record low 0.15% and imposed negative deposit rates on commercial lenders, in a bid to stimulate lending to businesses.

The bank also implemented a new Long-Term Refinancing Operation, designed to help banks lend to small companies and said it would "intensify" its preparatory work on the 'asset-backed security' market.

The ECB acted after a report showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.5% in May, far below the ECB’s target of close to but just under 2%.

The dollar inched higher against the yen on Friday, with USD/JPY at 102.47 at the close of trade, recovering from session lows of 102.12 struck immediately after the jobs data was released.

The dollar was also higher against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD slipping 0.11% to 1.6801 and USD/CHF rising 0.24% to 0.8933.

Elsewhere Friday, the Canadian dollar ended slightly lower against the U.S. dollar following the release of a lackluster domestic jobs report.

Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 25,800 jobs in May, above expectations for 25,000, but gains were due to the creation of part time positions, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.0% from 6.9% in April.

USD/CAD touched highs of 1.0948 before settling at 1.0931 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. retail sales report for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery. A rate review by New Zealand’s central bank and the latest U.K. jobs report will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 9

Markets in Australia are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Japan is to release revised data on first quarter growth, as well as reports on the current account and bank lending.

Canada is to publish data on housing starts.

Tuesday, June 10

Japan is to release data on tertiary industry activity.

Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence, as well as official data on home loans.

China is to produce data on consumer and producer prices.

In the euro zone, France is to publish data on industrial production. Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.K. is to release data on industrial and manufacturing production.

Wednesday, June 11

Japan is to publish the latest reading of its BSI manufacturing index.

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.

The U.K. is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

Thursday, June 12

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank is also to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision.

Japan is to produce data on core machinery orders.

Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, and a private sector report on inflation expectations.

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production, while the ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin.

Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation, while Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Ottawa.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on retail sales and import prices.

BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.

Friday, June 13

New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

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