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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 2 - 6

Published 06/01/2014, 04:58 AM
Dollar eases on Friday after U.S. data
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Investing.com - The dollar moved lower against the euro on Friday but still notched up weekly gains against the single currency amid widespread expectations for monetary easing by the European Central Bank at its upcoming policy meeting.

EUR/USD rose to 1.3633 late Friday from a three month trough of 1.3585 on Thursday, trimming the week’s losses to 0.13%. For the month, the euro dropped 1.69% against the dollar.

Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Italy and Spain slowed in May underlined expectations that the ECB will take steps to tackle low consumer price growth, which is threatening the fragile recovery in the euro zone.

The dollar eased on Friday after data showed that U.S. consumer spending fell 0.1% in April from a month earlier, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Personal income rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for May came in at 81.9, up slightly from a preliminary reading of 81.8, but falling short of forecasts for 82.5.

The dollar was almost unchanged against the yen late Friday, with USD/JPY settling at 101.76, down 0.14% for the week.

The euro pushed higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY rising 0.22% to 138.76, up from Thursday’s four month lows of 137.95, but lost 0.27% for the week.

Elsewhere, the dollar was lower against the pound, with GBP/USD up 0.22% to 1.6722 late Friday, but the pair still ended the week 0.54% lower. Sterling’s losses were held in check by the view that the deepening economic recovery in the U.K. will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Canadian dollar slid against the U.S. dollar on Friday after official data showed that the rate of economic growth in Canada slowed sharply in the first three months of the year.

Statistics Canada reported that gross domestic product expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, slowing from growth of 0.7% in the preceding three months. The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.2%, well below forecasts of 1.8%.

USD/CAD touched session highs of 1.0868 before pulling back to 1.0844 at the close.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 2

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Japan is to publish data on capital spending.

Australia is to release data on building approvals and company operating profits.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Spain and Italy are to produce data on manufacturing activity.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to publish its SVME index while the U.K. is to release what will be a closely watched manufacturing report. The U.K. is also to release data on net lending and mortgage approvals.

Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, June 3

China is to publish data on service sector activity, as well as the final reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.

Japan is to publish a report on average cash earnings.

Australia is to release data on the current account and retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.K. is to publish data on construction sector activity, as well as private sector data on house price inflation.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Spain is also to publish data on the change in the number of people employed.

The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders.

Wednesday, June 4

Australia is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.

The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity.

In the euro zone, Spain and Italy are to release data on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Also Wednesday, both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance.

Later in the day, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Thursday, June 5

Australia is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

China is to release its HSBC services index.

The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Germany is to produce data on factory orders.

The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release data on building permits and the Ivey PMI and the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 6

In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on the trade balance.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets. Switzerland is also to release data on consumer price inflation.

The U.K. is to produce data on the trade balance and a report on consumer inflation expectations.

Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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