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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 9 - 13

Published 06/08/2014, 06:03 AM
Updated 06/08/2014, 06:03 AM
Dollar edges higher vs. yen after U.S. nonfarm payrolls report - The dollar edged slightly higher against the yen on Friday after data showing that May marked the fourth month of jobs growth in the U.S. indicated that the economic recovery is on track.

The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs last month, just under expectations for jobs growth of 218,000, while April's figure was revised to 282,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at a five-and-a-half year low of 6.3%.

USD/JPY was at 102.47 late Friday, recovering from session lows of 102.12 struck immediately after the jobs data was released.

The pair is likely to find support at 102.00 and resistance at 102.78, last Wednesday’s high.

Elsewhere Friday, EUR/JPY was almost unchanged at 139.87 at the close of trade, recovering from the lows of 138.66 struck in the previous session. For the week, the pair was 0.42% higher.

The euro remained supported even after the European Central Bank unveiled a package of measures to avert the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area on Thursday.

The ECB cut the main refinancing rate in the euro area to a record low 0.15% and imposed negative deposit rates on commercial lenders, in a bid to stimulate lending to businesses.

The bank also implemented a new Long-Term Refinancing Operation, designed to help banks lend to small companies and said it would "intensify" its preparatory work on the 'asset-backed security' market.

The ECB acted after a report showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.5% in May, far below the ECB’s target of close to but just under 2%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. retail sales report for further indications on the strength of the recovery. Revised data on Japanese first quarter growth and the outcome of a monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 9

Japan is to release revised data on first quarter growth, as well as reports on the current account and bank lending.

Tuesday, June 10

Japan is to release data on tertiary industry activity.

Wednesday, June 11

Japan is to publish the latest reading of its BSI manufacturing index.

Thursday, June 12

Japan is to produce data on core machinery orders.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on retail sales and import prices.

Friday, June 13

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

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