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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 14 -18

Published 04/13/2014, 05:47 AM
Updated 04/13/2014, 05:47 AM - The yen ended the week broadly higher against the dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from implementing fresh stimulus measures at its latest policy meeting, while dovish Federal Reserve minutes weighed on the dollar.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 101.61, after weakening to 101.31 earlier in the trading day, the lowest since March 19. For the week, the pair lost 1.41%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.20 and resistance at 102.12, Thursday’s high.

The greenback briefly found support after data on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, the largest increase in nine months and ahead of expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Demand for the yen continued to be underpinned after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday the economy can weather a sales tax increase without further monetary policy measures to offset it.

Earlier Tuesday, the BoJ voted to keep its policy target of increasing the monetary base unchanged at an annual pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion at the end of its two-day policy meeting.

Kuroda said economic growth and inflation were likely to continue to pick up in the coming months despite a sales tax increase in April.

The dollar came under heavy session pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting indicated that an interest rate increase is unlikely to be warranted for some time.

The Fed’s March meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers discussed whether to keep interest rates at record lows until inflation moves higher, and did not elaborate on a possible timeframe for when rates could start to rise.

Last month the U.S. central bank reduced the monthly pace of asset purchases by $10 billion, to $55 billion, and repeated it is likely to continue paring the program in “further measured steps.”

Fed Chair Janet Yellen had indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

In the week ahead, market watchers will be focusing on speeches by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, as well as reports on U.S. retail sales and housing starts.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 14

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, April 15

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak; her comments will be closely watched.

Wednesday, April 16

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.S. is to produce reports on housing starts, building permits and industrial production.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in New York.

Thursday, April 17

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, April 18

U.S. markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

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