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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: May 26 - 30

Published 05/25/2014, 06:19 AM
Dollar ends week near 3-month highs against Swiss farnc

Investing.com - The dollar rose to more than three month highs against the Swiss franc on Friday, as better-than-forecast data on U.S. new home sales bolstered the outlook for the broader economic recovery.

USD/CHF hit highs of 0.8972, the most since February 13 and was last up 0.15% to 0.8951. For the week, the pair advanced 0.38%.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8922, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9000.

The dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes rose by a larger-than-expected 6.4% to 433,000 in April, after two months of decline.

Analysts had been expecting a figure of 425,000. March's number was revised up from 384,000 to 407,000.

The upbeat data boosted the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, to a six-week high of 80.49 before easing back to 80.40 at the close.

The dollar index was also bolstered by the greenback’s strong gains against the euro.

The euro fell to three month lows against the dollar after weak German business sentiment data underlined expectations that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy at its next meeting in June.

The German Ifo business climate index declined to 110.4 in May; the lowest reading this year, from 111.2 in April, indicating that economic activity could slow in coming months.

Recent comments by senior ECB officials have signaled that the bank is open to acting as soon as June to stop inflation in the currency bloc from falling too low.

On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said the bank is prepared to take unconventional measures to counter the risks of low inflation in the euro zone.

The euro was little changed close to one week lows against the Swiss franc late Friday, with EUR/CHF at 1.2207.

In the week ahead, U.S. markets will remain closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. Revised data on U.S. first quarter growth and reports on U.S. consumer confidence will be in focus. Switzerland is to release official data on first quarter growth, as well as trade and employment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 26

U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 27

Switzerland is to release data on the trade balance and the employment level.

The U.S. is to produce data on durable goods orders, house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, May 28

Switzerland is to release data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

Thursday, May 29

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter GDP, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Friday, May 30

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal income and expenditure and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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