Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: June 2 - 6

Published 06/01/2014, 09:45 AM
NZD/USD ends the week with a loss of 0.61% - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to an 11-week low against its U.S. counterpart, as investors bet on strong growth in the U.S. during the second quarter, despite the release of disappointing data on personal spending and consumer sentiment.

NZD/USD hit 0.8450 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since March 12, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8500 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.17% for the day but still 0.61% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8450, the low from May 29 and resistance at 0.8566, the high from May 28.

The greenback slumped after data showed that U.S. consumer spending fell 0.1% in April from a month earlier, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Personal income rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for May came in at 81.9, up slightly from a preliminary reading of 81.8, but falling short of forecasts for 82.5.

Meanwhile, traders shrugged off data that showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter and bet on improvement in the second quarter.

Market analysts expects second quarter growth to snap back with a 3.8% gain, after data on Thursday showed that the economy shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1% in the first quarter.

Elsewhere, in New Zealand, data released earlier in the week showed that the ANZ business confidence index fell to 53.5 this month, from a reading of 64.8 in April.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators modestly increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending May 27.

Net longs totaled 17,994 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 17,594 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 2

The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, June 3

The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders.

Wednesday, June 4

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to publish data on the trade balance.

The ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Thursday, June 5

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 6

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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