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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 26 - 30

Published 05/25/2014, 11:06 AM
Euro falls to 3-month lows against dollar
- - The euro fell to three month lows against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday after data showing that German business sentiment deteriorated in May added to expectations for easing by the European Central Bank at its upcoming June meeting.

EUR/USD hit lows of 1.3616, the weakest since February 13 and settled at 1.3630, 0.18% lower for the day. For the week, the pair lost 0.60%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3560 and resistance at 1.3660.

The drop in the euro came after a report showed that the German Ifo business climate index declined to 110.4 in May; the lowest reading this year, from 111.2 in April, indicating that economic activity could slow in coming months.

The data came one day after a report showing that manufacturing activity in the euro zone expanded at the slowest rate in six months in May.

Recent comments by senior ECB officials have signaled that the bank is open to acting as soon as June to stop inflation in the currency bloc from falling too low.

On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said the bank is prepared to take unconventional measures to counter the risks of low inflation in the euro zone.

The dollar was boosted after data on new home sales added to signs of a recovery in the housing market.

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes rose by a larger-than-expected 6.4% to 433,000 in April, after two months of decline. Analysts had been expecting a figure of 425,000. March's number was revised up from 384,000 to 407,000.

Elsewhere, the euro fell to 17 month lows against the pound, with EUR/GBP hitting 0.8082, the lowest since December 2012 before pulling back to 0.8099 at the close.

EUR/JPY ended Friday’s session at 139.02, not far from the three-and-a-half month trough of 138.13 struck on Wednesday.

In the coming week, U.S. markets are to remain closed for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. Investors will be looking ahead to revised data on U.S. first quarter growth, while reports on U.S. consumer confidence will also be in focus.

In the euro zone, data on German consumer climate and retail sales will be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 26

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Portugal; his comments will be closely watched.

U.S. markets will also be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 27

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Portugal; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.S. is to produce data on durable goods orders, house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, May 28

France is to release data on consumer spending, while Germany is to publish a report on unemployment change. Market research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate. The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply and private loans.

Thursday, May 29

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter GDP, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Friday, May 30

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish a report on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal income and expenditure and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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