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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: January 27 - 31

Published 01/26/2014, 10:53 AM
Updated 01/26/2014, 10:53 AM
Euro slips lower against dollar - The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Friday but fell sharply against the yen as a selloff in stocks and emerging market currencies spurred increased safe haven demand.

The euro ended Friday’s session slightly lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.17% to 1.3676, after rising to three-week highs of 1.3738 earlier.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3600 and resistance at 1.3700.

Elsewhere, the common currency was sharply lower against the yen and the Swiss franc. EUR/JPY fell 1.05% to six-week lows of 139.97, while EUR/CHF fell 0.44% to a one-month low of 1.2231.

A broad based selloff in financial markets accelerated on Friday as investors sold off stocks and emerging market currencies amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to taper stimulus measures.

The Turkish lira fell to the latest in a series of record lows against the dollar, after a currency market intervention by Turkey’s central bank failed to halt the currency’s steep decline. South Africa’s rand, the Russian ruble and the Argentine peso fell to multi-year lows against the dollar.

Argentina's central bank said Friday it was loosening strict foreign exchange rules, giving up its traditional policy of supporting the currency through interventions.

Emerging market currencies have been hard hit since the Fed announced plans last month to begin scaling back its asset purchase program, while worries over political instability and the outlook for growth for some countries also weighed.

Market sentiment was also hit by concerns over a slowdown in China after data on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index fell to a six-month low in January.

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Elsewhere, the euro was sharply higher against sterling, with EUR/GBP up 0.82% to 0.8298, recovering from the one-year lows of 0.8167 struck on Wednesday.

Sentiment on the pound was hit after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said it was time for the central bank to “evolve” its forward guidance on rates, because the unemployment rate has fallen far more quickly than the bank anticipated. The comments sparked concerns that the BoE may abandon the 7% unemployment threshold to consider an increase in interest rates.

The pound rallied after data earlier in the week showed that the U.K. unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% in the three months to November.

Carney said that even with falling unemployment, the U.K.'s economic recovery had yet to reach "escape velocity", adding that exceptional monetary policy is still relevant.

In the week ahead, Wednesday’s outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion in the bank’s stimulus program.

Euro zone data on inflation and unemployment will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 27

In the euro zone, Germany is to release the Ifo report on business climate.

The U.S. is to produce data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Tuesday, January 28

In the euro zone, Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

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The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as what will be a closely watch report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, January 29

The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, January 30

Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as a report on the change in the number of people unemployed. Elsewhere in the euro zone, Spain is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter growth.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 31

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a separate report on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on personal spending.

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