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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 14 -18

Published 04/13/2014, 10:53 AM
Updated 04/13/2014, 10:53 AM
Dollar ends week 1% lower against firmer euro - The dollar ended the week close to three-week lows against the euro on Friday as dovish Federal Reserve minutes tempered expectations that U.S. interest rates would rise sooner than had been anticipated.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3884, after touching session highs of 1.3905 earlier. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.04%, the largest weekly increase since September.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3835, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3900.

The euro eased back from session highs against the dollar on Friday after data showed that U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, the largest increase in nine months and ahead of expectations for a 0.1% increase.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 82.6 this month, its highest level since July.

But the greenback remained under pressure after the minutes of the Fed’s March meeting indicated that an interest rate increase is unlikely to be warranted for some time.

The Fed’s March meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers discussed whether to keep interest rates at record lows until inflation moves higher, and did not elaborate on a possible timeframe for when rates could start to rise.

Last month the U.S. central bank reduced the monthly pace of asset purchases by $10 billion, to $55 billion, and repeated it is likely to continue paring the program in “further measured steps.”

In mid-March Fed Chair Janet Yellen had indicated that interest rates could start to rise around six months after the end of the Fed’s bond purchasing program, suggesting a rate hike could occur in the early part of 2015.

The single currency continued to remain supported after comments by European Central Bank officials earlier in the week tempered expectations for quantitative easing.

ECB governing council member Yves Mersch said Monday there is no immediate risk of deflation in the euro zone and therefore no urgent need to implement large-scale bond purchases.

Separately, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said that monetary policy cannot solve the financial crisis, and urged euro zone political leaders to keep reforming their economies.

In the week ahead, market watchers will be focusing on speeches by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as well as reports on U.S. retail sales and housing starts. Meanwhile, Germany is to release its ZEW economic sentiment index.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 14

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, April 15

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later Tuesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak.

Wednesday, April 16

The euro zone is to release revised data on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to produce reports on housing starts, building permits and industrial production.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in New York.

Thursday, April 17

The euro zone is to publish data on the current account, while Germany is to produce data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, April 18

Markets in Europe and the U.S. will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

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