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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 2 - 6

Published 06/01/2014, 09:23 AM
AUD/USD ends the week with a gain of 0.84% - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session near a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart, following the release of disappointing U.S. data on personal spending and consumer confidence.

AUD/USD hit 0.9328 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 20, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9310 by close of trade on Friday, 0.02% higher for the day and up 0.84% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9209, the low from May 29 and resistance at 0.9334, the high from May 20.

The greenback slumped after data showed that U.S. consumer spending fell 0.1% in April from a month earlier, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Personal income rose 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for May came in at 81.9, up slightly from a preliminary reading of 81.8, but falling short of forecasts for 82.5.

Meanwhile, in Australia, data released earlier in the week showed that private capital expenditure fell 4.2% in the first quarter, compared to expectations for a 1.4% decline.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators decreased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending May 27.

Net longs totaled 15,848 contracts, compared to net longs of 19,462 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Tuesday’s rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be in focus, as well as highly-anticipated Australian first quarter growth data due Wednesday.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 2

Australia is to release data on building approvals and company operating profits.

Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, June 3

Australia is to release data on the current account and retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to produce data on factory orders.

Wednesday, June 4

Australia is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to publish data on the trade balance.

The ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Thursday, June 5

Australia is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 6

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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