Breaking News
Get 40% Off 0
🔎 See NVDA's full ProTips for an instant risks or rewards Claim 40% OFF

Take Five: Roll on Q4!

Published Oct 02, 2023 02:20AM ET Updated Oct 02, 2023 02:25AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/file photo
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio

LONDON (Reuters) - The shutdown of the U.S. government has been averted, while embattled developer China Evergrande (HK:3333) is on the brink, and markets are still adjusting to central banks' higher for longer rates mantra.

If that wasn't enough to kick off the final quarter of 2023, there's central bank meetings from Australia to Poland and closely-watched U.S. jobs data.

Here's your week ahead in markets from Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Harry Robertson, Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones in London.


The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday, averting a government shutdown that threatened to further damage the U.S. credit rating, exacerbate market volatility and delay key economic releases.

Still, concerns that political polarization in Washington is weakening fiscal policymaking could linger.

Focus now turns to the closely-watched September non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy created 150,000 jobs in September versus 187,000 in August.

Stronger-than-expected data would likely bolster the 'higher for longer' rates stance that is hurting bonds and stocks.


The Reserve Bank of Australia's new governor Michele Bullock, the first woman to head the bank, chairs her first meeting on Tuesday.

    Investors will be looking for signals from Bullock, known as a straight talker, on whether the RBA is done with hikes or if more might be coming after some signs of inflation smoldering in the services sector. The consensus is for a pause.

    China is another risk for Australia's economy, of course: a property sector teetering on the edge of collapse flashes red lights for Australian raw material exports.

    The window into what Beijing is doing to prop up the sector – if anything - will basically be shut next week given the Golden Week holiday.

    Meanwhile, New Zealand's Reserve Bank meets on Wednesday. Despite a hawkish bias, a hike is viewed as a long shot. The focus is on any signals for a possible November move.


Markets kick off the all-important final quarter of the year after a game-changer of a last few months driven largely by a 30% surge in oil prices.

Higher rates mean U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds - often the main ballast of portfolios - have cost investors between 5.5% and 6.5% in Q3. Even gold has lost its shine, meaning that the dollar has really been the only safety play in town.

Equity bulls have also been biffed. World stocks are still up a respectable 8% for the year but have given back almost 5% in September with even the global tech giants reversing.

Q4 though will bring another earnings season and while the AI boom still matters, analysts will be ultra-focused on the what the traditional economy players say about the cost pain or lack of it that their customers are now feeling.


Just how high government bond yields climb is on the watch list after yet another market sell-off. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.6%, its highest level since the October 2007, as investors absorb the Federal Reserve message that rates will stay high until inflation is quashed.

That has also steepened yield curves sharply, as long-dated bond yields are rising much faster than shorter-dated ones. The yield surge has hammered stocks and helped push the dollar to its highest in almost a year. ING reckons a 5% handle on Treasury yields and 3% for 10-year German Bunds are "looking more probable by the day". At around 2.9%, German yields are near their highest levels since 2011.


In early September, Poland's central bank governor Adam Glapinski stunned markets. He delivered a much larger than expected 75-basis point rate cut to 6% for emerging Europe's biggest economy, where inflation is still in double digits.

The move sent the zloty sharply lower and came at a tense time for Poland, which heads to the polls on Oct. 15.

With the cost of living a key election battleground, the drastic cut brings relief to those struggling with mortgage repayments.

But it also adds to pressure on the fiscal side combined with a deluge of election promises featuring generous spending commitments across the political spectrum, fanning concerns over the outlook for inflation.

On Wednesday, policy makers meet to decide the next step in interest rates.

Take Five: Roll on Q4!

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your profile, will be public on and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email