The International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Kristalina Georgieva, has made significant revisions to the GDP growth forecasts for Spain, India, and Russia. On Tuesday, the IMF adjusted its predictions for these countries' economic performance in 2023 and 2024.
In Spain, the IMF reduced the 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, a three-tenth reduction from its previous estimate. Despite this downward revision, Spain is expected to outperform other developed economies with a projected 2.4% growth for the current year. In terms of inflation, the IMF expects a rise in Spain by 2024, with an average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 3.5% this year, projected to increase to 3.9% next year.
For India, the IMF increased its GDP growth forecast to 6.3% in 2023, aligning with the World Bank's stance and leaning towards the Indian government's prediction of 6.5%. This revision was spurred by stronger-than-expected consumption in India during April-June. The IMF also projects a decrease in India's retail inflation from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023, further dropping to 5.8% by 2024.
In Russia, the IMF revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 upwards to 2.2%, a significant increase from its April prediction of 0.7%. However, it reduced the projection for 2024 to 1.1%. This report underscores the mixed effects of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports, with consistent export flows and a diminishing price gap with Brent oil, now trading above the G7's $60 cap.
On a global scale, the IMF maintains a growth rate of 3.0% for 2023, but foresees a drop to 2.9% in 2024 due to widening divergences in growth rates across nations. The United States is leading the economic recovery, while emerging markets and developing economies are trailing.
These revisions reflect the IMF's assessment of the global economic landscape and the varying degrees of recovery from the pandemic among different countries. These changes underscore the dynamic nature of global economic trends, influenced by a multitude of factors including national policies, market conditions, and international relations.
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