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Fed hikes by 0.25% in further downshift on tightening, but sees more hikes ahead

Economy Feb 01, 2023 04:18PM ET
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© Reuters

By Yasin Ebrahim 

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, and signaled a need to push monetary policy further into restrictive territory as the central bank looks to make up further ground in its battle against inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, raised its benchmark rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% from 4.25% to 4.5% previously. 

The quarter-point hike marked the second downshift from the Federal Reserve following a slowdown to 50 basis points at the December meeting after four-consecutive 75-basis-point hikes.

At the December meeting, the Fed lifted its benchmark rate to a median rate of 5.1% in 2023, equal to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%, suggesting three quarter-point hikes were in the chamber for 2023. The first rate hike of 2023 hasn't seen the Fed soften its stance to remain on course to move toward its projected target range. 

"The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time," the Fed said in a statement.

But with monetary policy now at sufficiently restrictive levels and data continuing to show slowing inflation as well as weaker economic growth, many on Wall Street doubt whether there is a need for the Fed to go much further after this latest hike.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, slowed to 4.4% at a 12-month annualized rate in December from 4.7% previously.

“The market is saying we're good with it [a Fed pause]. I don't think anyone would look at the Fed and say, you didn't do what you said you were going to do,” Robert Conzo, CEO of The Wealth Alliance told Investing.com in an interview on Tuesday.  “The dramatic hikes that they did in 2022, was really unprecedented … they made their statement,” Conzo added.

Pointing to a labor market that remains red-hot that threatens to boost inflation, the Fed, however, is hesitant to hoist the white flag on rate hikes.

Powell acknowledged that disinflation has started in the goods sector, driven by easing in supply chain shortages, but cautioned against declaring victory too early amid price pressures in core services, ex-housing, sector of the economy, in which labor is the biggest cost. 

"We expect to see the disinflation process in the core services, ex- housing sector, but we don't see it yet," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the press conference that followed the monetary policy statement. "The biggest part of it, research shows, is sensitive to slack in the economy. The labour market will probably be important," he added.

"We're not yet in at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate," Powell said, though didn't push back as much as expected against the recent easing in financial conditions that have seen risk assets make a strong start to the year.  

"Our focus is not on short term moves, but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions," the Fed chief said.

Fed hikes by 0.25% in further downshift on tightening, but sees more hikes ahead
 

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Comments (38)
Hank Williams
Hank Williams Feb 02, 2023 12:29PM ET
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Fed is behind now. It will take longer to get control of inflation. Fed will end having to go higher than first anticipated.
First Last
First Last Feb 02, 2023 12:29PM ET
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By not prematurely keeping rates excessively high now and damaging the economy more than necessary, the Fed will not later have to keep rates lower for longer to repair unnecessary damage.
jamie
jamie Feb 02, 2023 9:14AM ET
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In history, Inflation never come down easy and 6% inflation is very high. Powell made mistake again and he will be the worst chair of FR all time.
jamie
jamie Feb 02, 2023 9:11AM ET
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Yesterday, Powell made BIG mistake again. We will see inflation rebound and get more suffer from harsh rates.
First Last
First Last Feb 02, 2023 9:11AM ET
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The Fed's role is not to speculate on what will happen and act preemptively.  It acts based on data.  The Fed like a market maker who buys & sells to keep his book delta-neutral, NOT a degenerate  permabear gambler/trader who buys far otm puts.
Gary Piccone
Gary Piccone Feb 02, 2023 8:40AM ET
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Deja vu from last year
Marko Femić
Marko Femić Feb 02, 2023 7:26AM ET
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JP just keep talking and hammering the USD. Soon, a worker's salary will be worth much less. Just keep on fake raising stock prices... someone else will surely be blamed for the consequences...
Dave Jones
Dave Jones Feb 01, 2023 9:43PM ET
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Not a pivot then?
nils Hullmann
nils Hullmann Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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Powell just killed the dollar
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nils Hullmann
nils Hullmann Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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Luke Knoep enjoy dxy under 100 today after NFP and ECB 50 point hike
Luke Knoep
Luke Knoep Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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Luke Knoep
Luke Knoep Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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nils Hullmann dxy is strong at 101 as expected
First Last
First Last Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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Luke Knoep   nils is so wrong and so confident at the same time.
First Last
First Last Feb 01, 2023 5:06PM ET
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nils Hullmann   Crude price is about 20% below what the US sold at from the SPR under Biden.
Dave Jones
Dave Jones Feb 01, 2023 4:28PM ET
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Inflation has found a home in the stock market. don't fight it. Buy the dip sell the pump.
James Lim
James Lim Feb 01, 2023 4:28PM ET
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Where is thr dip?
Dave Jones
Dave Jones Feb 01, 2023 4:28PM ET
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it was down 300 points at one point.
Jack Nordan
Jack Nordan Feb 01, 2023 4:25PM ET
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eur/aud tomorrow up or down?
Jack Bouwsn
Jack Bouwsn Feb 01, 2023 4:25PM ET
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Depends on ECB’s interest rate decision.
Jack Nordan
Jack Nordan Feb 01, 2023 4:25PM ET
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what's say your mind any idea?
Feb 01, 2023 4:16PM ET
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Well, hyperinflation it is
 
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