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Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their words

Published 08/31/2023, 09:45 PM
Updated 08/31/2023, 09:51 PM
© Reuters. The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed/file photo

(Reuters) - The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, and the choices - to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause – more varied.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Austan John Jerome Christopher

Goolsbee, Williams, Powell, Fed Waller,

Chicago Fed New York Chair, Governor,

President, Fed permanent permanent

2023 voter: President, voter: “We voter: “If

“If conditions permanent are prepared inflation

keep going voter: "To to raise does not

like what me, the rates further continue to

we've seen the debate is if show

last couple of really appropriate, progress

months, our about: Do and intend to and there

arguments are we need to hold policy are no

going to do another at a suggestions

revolve around rate restrictive of a

how long increase? level until significant

should we keep Or not?" we are slowdown in

rates at the Aug. 2, confident economic

levels they 2023 that activity,

are rather inflation is then a

than how much moving second

higher should sustainably 25-basis-po

the rates go.” down toward int hike

Aug. 25, 2023 our should come

objective.” sooner

Aug. 25, 2023 rather than

later”

after the

July rate

hike. July

13, 2023

Patrick Lisa Cook, Philip Michelle

Harker, Governor, Jefferson, Bowman,

Philadelphia permanent Governor and Governor,

Fed President, voter: Vice Chair permanent

2023 voter: “If Designate, voter: “I

"Right now, I confirmed, permanent expect that

think that I will voter: “The additional

we've probably stay economy faces increases

done enough.” focused on multiple will likely

Aug. 24, 2023 inflation challenges, be needed

until our including to lower

job is inflation, inflation

done.” banking-secto to the

June 21, r stress, and (Federal

2023 geopolitical Open Market

instability. Committee's

The Federal ) goal.”

Reserve must Aug. 7,

remain 2023

attentive to

them all.”

June 21, 2023

Raphael Susan Michael Barr, Loretta

Bostic, Collins, Vice Chair of Mester,

Atlanta Fed Boston Fed Supervision, Cleveland

President, President, permanent Fed

2024 voter: "I 2025 voter: “I'll President,

feel policy is voter: “We just say for 2024 voter:

appropriately may be at, myself, I "Probably

restrictive.” or near, think we're we need to

Aug. 31, 2023 the point close.” July bring rates

where 10, 2023 up another

monetary notch….It

policy can doesn't

pause necessarily

raising have to be

interest September,

rates.” but I think

May 25, this year.”

2023 Aug. 26,

2023

Mary Daly, San Neel

Francisco Fed Kashkari,

President, Minneapolis

2024 voter: Fed

“Whether we President,

raise another 2023 voter:

time, or hold “I'm not

rates steady ready to say

for a longer that we're

period -- done.” Aug.

those things 15, 2023

are yet to be

determined.”

Aug. 10, 2023.

Lorie Logan,

Dallas Fed

President,

2023 voter:

“The

continuing

outlook for

above-target

inflation and

a

stronger-than

-expected

labor market

calls for

more-restrict

ive monetary

policy.” July

6, 2023

Thomas

Barkin,

Richmond Fed

President,

2024 voter:

"The

reacceleratio

n scenario

has come onto

the table in

a way that it

really wasn't

three or four

months ago.”

© Reuters. The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed/file photo

Aug. 22, 2023

Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Most policymakers as of June expected at least one more rate hike by year’s end. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid started as Kansas City Fed president on Aug. 21, but has made no public comments yet. He will be a voter in 2025. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search for a successor to James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

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