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Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words

Published Sep 29, 2023 03:43PM ET Updated Sep 29, 2023 03:49PM ET
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(Reuters) - The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Lisa Cook, Jerome Christopher

Governor, John Powell, Fed Waller,

permanent Williams, Chair, Governor,

voter: “If New York permanent permanent

confirmed, I Fed voter: "We voter:

will stay President, want to see “There's

focused on permanent convincing nothing

inflation voter: "My evidence that is

until our job current really, that saying we

is done.” June assessment we have need to do

21, 2023 is that we reached the anything

are at, or appropriate imminent

near, the level.” Sept anytime

peak level 20, 2023 soon, so we

of the can just

target sit there,

range for wait for

the the data,

federal see if

funds things

rate." continue."

Sept. 29, Sept. 5,

2023 2023

Austan Philip Michael Barr, Michelle

Goolsbee, Jefferson, Vice Chair of Bowman,

Chicago Fed Governor Supervision, Governor,

President, and Vice permanent permanent

2023 voter: Chair voter: “I'll voter: "I

“Believing too Designate, just say for continue to

strongly in permanent myself, I expect that

the voter: think we're further

inevitability “The close.” July rate hikes

of a large economy 10, 2023 will likely

trade-off faces be needed

between multiple to return

inflation and challenges inflation

unemployment , to 2% in a

comes with the including timely

serious risk inflation, way." Sept

of a near-term banking-se 22, 2023

policy error.” ctor

Sept. 28, 2023 stress,

and

geopolitic

al

instabilit

y. The

Federal

Reserve

must

remain

attentive

to them

all.” June

21, 2023

Patrick Mary Daly, Neel Loretta

Harker, San Kashkari, Mester,

Philadelphia Francisco Minneapolis Cleveland

Fed President, Fed Fed Fed

2023 voter: President, President, President,

"Right now, I 2024 2023 voter: 2024 voter:

think that voter: "Today I put "Probably

we've probably “Patience a 40% we need to

done enough.” is a probability" bring rates

Aug. 24, 2023 prudent on the up another

strategy." scenario that notch….It

Sept 22, “we would doesn't

2023 have to push necessarily

the federal have to be

funds rate September,

higher, but I think

potentially this year.”

meaningfully Aug. 26,

higher.” Sept 2023

26, 2023

Raphael Susan Lorie Logan,

Bostic, Collins, Dallas Fed

Atlanta Fed Boston Fed President,

President, President, 2023 voter:

2024 voter: "I 2025 “My base

feel policy is voter: “I case, though,

appropriately expect is that there

restrictive.” rates may is work left

Aug. 31, 2023 have to to do.” Sept.

stay 7, 2023

higher,

and for

longer,

than

previous

projection

s had

suggested.

" Sept.

22, 2023

Thomas

Barkin,

Richmond Fed

President,

2024 voter:

"It's good

for the Fed

to take some

time and see

how the data

plays out.”

Sept. 28,

2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
 

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