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Factbox-Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

Published Dec 01, 2023 09:16AM ET
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(Reuters) -Some major banks expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.

Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the United Kingdom.

A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative, cost-efficient production destinations.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 0.6% 6.3%

Sachs

Morgan 2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS 2.60% 1.10% 4.40% 0.60% 0.6% 6.2%

Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 4.40% 0.30% 0.1% 6.2%

J.P.Morg 2.20% 1.60% 4.90% 0.40% 0.2% 5.7%

an

BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.50% 0.1% 5.7%

Global

Research

Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.20% 0.3% 6.0%

Bank

Citigrou 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.20% -0.30% 5.7%

p

U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds

Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec

'24)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.60% 5.13%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%

UBS 2.70% 2.75%

Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60% 4.75%-5.00%

Barclays 2.70% 5.25%-5.50%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4.50%

BofA Global 2.80% 4.50%-4.75%

Research

Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%

Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C

target yield NY

target

Goldman Sachs 4700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15

Morgan Stanley 4500 1 140 7.5

UBS 4600 3.60% 1.15 130 7.15

Wells Fargo 4600-480 4.75%-5.25 1.08-1.1 136-140

0 % 2

Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15

BofA Global 5000 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90

Research

Deutsche Bank 5100 4.10% 1.10 135

Societe 4750 3.75% 1.15

Generale

Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25

As of 1348 GMT on Dec. 01, 2023:

S&P 500: 4567.80

US 10-year yield: 4.3243%

EUR/USD: 1.0873

USD/CNY: 7.1425

USD/JPY: 148.16

Factbox-Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
 

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Casador Del Oso
Casador Del Oso Dec 01, 2023 9:30AM ET
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Forecasts are always bullish. Analysts are not paid to be bearish. Many investment firms are paid by how much money they have under management.
 
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