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Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

Published 06/21/2020, 07:00 AM
Updated 06/21/2020, 07:06 AM

By Noreen Burke - The main economic indicator in focus for investors this week will be the rising U.S. coronavirus case count, while the International Monetary Fund is set to slash its global growth forecasts. It’s going to be a quiet week on the economic calendar, with updates on the housing sector, durable goods orders, and of course weekly jobless claims in the U.S. In the euro zone and UK PMI’s are likely to remain in deep contractionary territory. Meanwhile the FTSE Russell is set to reconstitute its stock indexes on Friday, an annual event that historically creates one of the biggest trading volume days of the year. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

  1. Coronavirus infections spike in several states

Spikes in coronavirus infection rates in several U.S. states, mainly in the South and West look set to add to market jitters over a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he had asked U.S. officials to slow down testing, calling it a "double-edged sword" that led to more cases being discovered.

Health experts say expanded diagnostic testing accounts for some, but not all, of the growth in cases. Over 119,600 Americans have died from the virus to date, according to Reuters’ data.

On Friday, Federal Reserve officials warned that the lack of containment could lead to a need for more prolonged shut-downs and added that the recent positive trend on job gains could soon be reversed.

  1. IMF to say global economic outlook is even worse than before
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In its updated global economic forecast due out on Wednesday the IMF is expected to say the 2020 global recession will be even worse than it estimated in its previous forecast in April.

Back then the IMF said the global economy would suffer the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s as it forecast a contraction of 3%. Now the fund is due to warn that the decline could be even worse.

“For the first time since the Great Depression, both advanced and emerging market economies will be in recession in 2020. The forthcoming June World Economic Outlook Update is likely to show negative growth rates even worse than previously estimated,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said in a blog post last Tuesday.

Gopinath also said the current crisis is “unlike anything the world has seen before.”

  1. Housing data, durable goods and jobless claims in focus

It’s set to be a quiet week on the U.S. economic calendar with investors focusing on new and existing home sales for May along with durable goods orders which are expected to rebound but remain below pre-virus levels.

Thursday’s closely watched report on initial jobless claims will be the main event, as it provides the timeliest data on the economy’s health.

Last Thursday’s report showed that while the number of initial jobless claims fell the pace of the decline stalled, underlining the view that the economy faces a long and difficult recovery from the COVID-19 recession.

The U.S. is also set to release its third estimate on first quarter GDP on Thursday, which will be largely of historical interest.

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  1. Euro zone, UK PMI data

In the euro zone, a report on consumer confidence on Monday will provide a snapshot of how quickly sentiment is recovering as economies gradually reopen. Tuesday’s PMI data for June will also be closely watched. PMI data for May, while better than April showed that the manufacturing and service sectors were still deep in contraction territory.

The UK is also to release PMI data this week and while a sizable rebound is forecast in both the manufacturing and service sectors both readings are expected to remain well below the key 50 level which separates growth from contraction.

  1. FTSE Russell reshuffle

The FTSE Russell reshuffles its stock indexes late Friday. The annual rebalancing becomes final on the fourth Friday every June, after markets close.

The resulting surge in trading volume crests right before the market close. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, because of the scale of the revamp, reinforces the rules for trades on the close and contingency plans in the event of unusual market conditions.

Stocks are added or deleted from Russell's family of indexes, including the Russell 1000 large cap and Russell 2000 small cap, prompting fund managers to adjust portfolios to reflect new weightings and components.

Bank of America analysts predict big changes this year, with a greater skew towards mega-cap tech stocks. Those "moving up" may include names such as Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ:ZM), Slack (NYSE:WORK) and Crowdstrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) which have risen in price amid the shift to remote working.

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--Reuters contributed to his report

Latest comments

I think it's going to be relatively green this week. The fake "second wave" scare has lost its shock factor.
And those increased infections, how many of those 30 year olds are really sick? I assure you less than 1%. The fake media does NOT report that.
forget fed and bla bla it is not a wave it is fire!!!
The fed speech changed this market. Thats the simple fact of the matter!
a lot of people sold there stocks few month ago bcoz of the fake news
yes yes is the end of the world...couple of days later....stocks reached new high.
They just got some more printers
Yes Investors all gambling of V-shaped recovery, 0 more lockdowns and regardless of what happens - Fed pumping Trillions more in to keep shares artificially high. All ignoring there will be a massive global recession that will impact US companies in some shape or form, Brexit looks like it will be hard (no-deal with EU and UK) and rising tensions with China. Sooner or later the market will need to come to its senses. Even the pre-Covid market was overpriced - let alone when you have 16%+ unemployment, a global recession on the horizon, deal with China perhaps collapsing and most gov spending any resources they do have to avoid a recession on health/social welfare.
The death rate has been steadily declining which is more important
still the same wave bossman it hasnt left yet, i think americas problem maybe the fact that if it survives on surfaces the amount of cash transactions and excessive packaging i.e non exorbant plastics etc it could linger around for quite awhile. just a thought.
There is a medicine for sever cases, there is a medicine for early treatment(not 100% certain), only what people expect medicine 100%certain to cure, then COVID19 will not be pedemic it will be like taking another pill....
It takes 4-5 weeks for death rate to catch up to new cases as even the most severe cases can be kept alive for 4-5 weeks artificially on ventilators as long as the health system isn't overstretched. With 30,000+ new cases a day in 4-5 states - eventually the death rate will rise, unfortunately. There are now drugs to lower the rate but will still be high.
don't listen to these news thats when u gonna miss out how bearish they were at 18000 points media is bullish when market is up when its down couple of hundred points bearish. with respect we ll reach 29000 by January
Do the opposite, listen to these news are losers.
Stocks will be mixed this week but will probably eke out a small gain on the week if not probably about 100 points in the negative but this all depends on jobless claims if they are good i could stay positive if they are bad it will lose far more 100 points for the week.
so ashton i take it, its only seen as a number no further info is given or sought. like it could be a made up number or like yano all deaths around the world through the lock down periods of each country were classed as covid deaths regardless of the actual cause of death... ppl didnt know that until it was questioned as there was no other cause of death recorded from anything else...imagine that its so crazy bad it kills other causes of death....
yup thought so, not based on facts like the total death toll of covid is based on all deaths recorded through each countries lockdown period regardless of actual cause of death
 Try AEMD. You can also check this link for ideas:
Stocks will be mixed this week but will probably eke out a small gain on the week if not probably about 100 points negative
Mixed of what?
Let's use common sense here, mixed as in green or red.
looks like fake media enjoying coroonavirus, they want sharing only sad thinks
Big down day tomorrow monthly candle changed bearish. What a trap
Trump wanted less tests being done to prevent more cases from being discovered.... 🤦‍♂️
There are more tests available and more testing being done now, so hence the rise in Covid. Its people that were already infected but not tested. Its common sense for those who have common sense. 🧐
I'm sorry. That is not common sense. No matter the number of tests their are still cases of coronavirus. If everyone is tested then they can isolate and quit spreading which equals squelched virus. The sooner you guys get this the sooner we can move forward. Or keep playing this denial game and drag this out. Market is going down. Get your masks on.
shhhhh thats not scary.... like death war disease famine second wave of the ***of deaths is on its way no other cause of death in 5 months except???
Ugly week upcoming for stocks.
Idk depends on jobs
always the same story. it is the end of the world and the next day stocks are higher than ever
Sick staff and empty seats: How Trump's triumphant return to the campaign trail went from bad to worse
When Trump is more interested in being re elected showing the importance of allowing Health officials to do their job and not be asking to slow down testing since its affecting his term and his stock market performance, he will then gain more voter support
Better than doing it from a basement like Biden
 Yes get the tear gas out for peaceful protestors instead - all so you can have a photoshoot in front of a church  ;) (a photoshoot condemned by all religious leaders)
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