Join +750K new investors every month who copy stock picks from billionaire's portfoliosSign Up Free

US dollar falls on dovish remarks by Fed's Powell

Published 11/30/2023, 08:48 PM
Updated 12/01/2023, 03:55 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A bank employee counts U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar fell on Friday, after two days of gains, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further interest rate moves, saying that the risk of under- or over-tightening is now more balanced.

The market viewed his comments as dovish, with investors pricing in expectations that the Fed is likely done raising rates.

Powell said it was clear that U.S. monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected, with a benchmark overnight interest rate "well into restrictive territory." Powell noted, however, that the Fed is prepared to tighten policy further if deemed appropriate.

"Powell just gave the thumbs up to the other side of the camp believing that the Fed has acted correctly and can afford to wait-and-see without (hiking), but not necessarily cutting," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

The U.S. dollar index - which tracks the currency against six major counterparts - was last down 0.2% at 103.23 after ending November on Thursday with its weakest monthly performance in a year. It is poised to end lower for a third straight week.

Following Powell's remarks, U.S. rate futures on Friday priced in a 64% chance of a rate cut by the March meeting, compared to 43% late on Thursday, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. For the May meeting, U.S. rate cut chances surged to 90%, from about 76% the day before.

Powell's remarks came after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector remained weak in November, affirming his comments that Fed rate hikes have started to slow the economy.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. It was the 13th consecutive month that the PMI stayed below 50, which indicates contraction in manufacturing.

Softer U.S. and euro zone inflation data on Thursday reinforced expectations that central banks in both regions might be done raising interest rates, leading traders to bet on earlier cuts next year.

Goldman Sachs on Friday said it expected the European Central Bank to deliver its first rate cut in the second quarter of 2024, compared to a previous forecast of a cut in the third quarter.

Mixed economic data across Europe failed to set the tone for the euro, with a survey showing a downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity eased slightly last month but remained deeply in the red. Britain also reported contraction in manufacturing but an improved reading for a third straight month.

The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.0874, cutting losses and benefiting from a sell-off in the dollar following Powell's comments.

Sterling rose 0.5% to $1.2699.

Against the yen, the dollar dropped 0.9% to 146.855 yen. The yen was on course for its third straight week of gains, pulling it away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 per dollar touched in the middle of November.

Rising expectations of the Bank of Japan abandoning its ultra-easy monetary policy next year along with a drop in U.S. yields have buoyed the Asian currency in the past few weeks.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin continued to strengthen, rising to an 18-month high of $38,839. It was last up 2.8% at $38,788.


Currency bid prices at 3:10PM (2010 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change


Dollar index 103.2400 103.4500 -0.18% -0.242% +103.7300 +103.1100

Euro/Dollar $1.0873 $1.0889 -0.13% +1.49% +$1.0912 +$1.0829

Dollar/Yen 146.8550 148.2100 -0.89% +12.04% +148.3400 +146.6600

Euro/Yen 159.69 161.35 -1.03% +13.82% +161.7700 +159.6500

Dollar/Swiss 0.8694 0.8753 -0.67% -5.98% +0.8768 +0.8680

Sterling/Dollar $1.2700 $1.2627 +0.58% +5.01% +$1.2715 +$1.2615

Dollar/Canadian 1.3498 1.3559 -0.46% -0.39% +1.3564 +1.3488

Aussie/Dollar $0.6671 $0.6605 +1.00% -2.14% +$0.6675 +$0.6600

Euro/Swiss 0.9451 0.9526 -0.79% -4.49% +0.9545 +0.9450

Euro/Sterling 0.8560 0.8624 -0.74% -3.21% +0.8634 +0.8561

NZ $0.6200 $0.6155 +0.73% -2.35% +$0.6205 +$0.6152


Dollar/Norway 10.6660 10.8270 -1.40% +8.77% +10.8050 +10.6580

Euro/Norway 11.6025 11.7648 -1.38% +10.57% +11.7760 +11.5933

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A bank employee counts U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

Dollar/Sweden 10.3758 10.4994 -1.16% -0.31% +10.5200 +10.3579

Euro/Sweden 11.2841 11.4168 -1.16% +1.21% +11.4359 +11.2810

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.