🚀 AI-picked stocks soar in May. PRFT is +55%—in just 16 days! Don’t miss June’s top picks.Unlock full list

China central bank set to cut key rate, boost liquidity Monday to aid economy

Published 01/14/2024, 06:00 PM
Updated 01/14/2024, 06:05 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
USD/CNY
-

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -China's central bank is expected to ramp up liquidity injections and cut a key interest rate when it rolls over maturing medium-term policy loans on Monday, as authorities try to get the shaky economy back on more solid footing.

Expectations of monetary easing have heightened after major Chinese commercial banks lowered deposit rates late last year, paving the way for further reductions in policy rates at a time when persistent deflationary pressures also warrant additional stimulus.

A protracted property crisis, cautious consumers and geopolitical challenges are also pointing to another bumpy year for the world's second-biggest economy.

In a Reuters poll of 35 market participants conducted this week, 19 or 54.3% expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to cut the borrowing cost of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans.

The central bank last cut the MLF rate in August 2023 by 15 basis points (bps).

Thirty, or 85.7% of all respondents, predicted the central bank would inject fresh funds into the financial system exceeding the maturing 779 billion yuan ($108.73 billion) of MLF loans due this month.

"Inflation could be of higher priority for the PBOC to prevent a negative feedback loop between deflation and activities," Citi analysts said in a note.

"We reiterate our view for a policy rate/LPR cut as early as in coming weeks within January ... We maintain our expectations of 50-basis-point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and 20-basis-point MLF rate cuts for the whole year."

The interest rate on MLF loans currently stands at 2.5%. As it serves as a guide to the loan prime rate (LPR), markets mostly see the rate as a precursor to adjustments in the LPR. China is due to announce the monthly LPR fixing on Jan. 22.

"I think the central bank should take action as early as possible: it should lower both interest rates and RRR as early as the beginning of the year," said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS.

However, she added that the PBOC might be rather cautious as it has to pay close attention to U.S. Federal Reserve and dynamics of interest rate movements in global markets.

Wang expects a total of 10 to 20 bps of rate reductions and 25 to 50 bps points of RRR cuts this year.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo

Investors' expectations for an RRR cut also rose after Zou Lan, monetary policy department head of PBOC, highlighted reserve requirements as one of monetary policy options to support credit growth, according to a state media report this week.

($1 = 7.1643 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.