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The week ahead: 5 things to watch on the economic calendar

EconomyJul 16, 2017 04:12AM ET
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© Reuters. 5 things to watch on the economic calendar in the week ahead

Investing.com - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting for fresh clues on when the central bank will shift away from its ultra-easy policy.

Investors will also pay close attention to a monetary policy decision due in Japan amid speculation the Bank of Japan will lag well behind major global central banks in dialing back its massive stimulus program.

Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched growth data amid recent signs of cooling in the world's second biggest economy.

In the U.K., market participants will be looking ahead to a report on consumer price inflation for further hints on the strength of the economy and the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year.

Traders will also eye data on the U.S. housing sector to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy and how it will impact the Federal Reserve's view on monetary policy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. European Central Bank policy meeting

The European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision is due at 1145GMT (7:45AM ET) on Thursday, with no big changes expected.

Most of the focus will be on President Mario Draghi's press conference 45 minutes after the announcement, as investors look for more clues on when and how the ECB could scale back its massive quantitative easing program.

Market experts believe the central bank is likely to wait until September before announcing a tapering of its 60 billion euros of monthly asset purchases.

Besides the ECB, market participants will be focusing on Tuesday's ZEW survey data on German economic sentiment to gauge confidence in the euro zone's largest economy.

2. Bank of Japan monetary policy decision

The Bank of Japan is not expected to make any changes to its monetary policy at the conclusion of its two-day rate review on Thursday, as robust exports and private consumption heighten prospects of a moderate economic expansion.

According to sources, the Japanese central bank is likely to upgrade its economic assessment but cut its rosy inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations it will lag well behind major global central banks in dialing back its massive stimulus program.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference afterward to discuss the decision. He is likely to remind markets of the BOJ's resolve to maintain its ultra-easy policy until inflation is sustainably above 2%.

In addition, investors will focus on monthly trade data due Thursday, which could show Japanese exports rising for a seventh consecutive month.

3. China Q2 GDP

China is scheduled to release data on second quarter gross domestic product at around 0200GMT on Monday (10:00PM ET Sunday).

The report is expected to show the world's second largest economy grew 6.8% in the three months ended June 30, tempering initial worries of a sharper slowdown as Beijing walks a policy tightrope with its quest to crackdown on financial risks and limit damage to the economy.

The Asian nation will also publish data on June industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales along with the GDP report.

4. U.K. inflation figures

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for June at 0830GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 2.9%, the highest level in nearly four years.

The recent surge in inflation, caused largely by the plunge in sterling following last year's Brexit vote, has prompted some Bank of England policymakers to call for higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Besides the inflation report, the ONS will produce data on June retail sales on Thursday, with analysts expecting an increase of 0.4%.

Recent data has pointed to signs that rising inflation is crimping spending by consumers, the main drivers of the economy, just as the country is set to start EU divorce negotiations.

5. U.S. housing data

The Commerce Department is to publish a report on housing starts and building permits for June at 8:30AM ET (1230GMT) on Wednesday. The data could show that permits rose 3.0% to 1.200 million last month, while housing starts are forecast to gain 5.8% to 1.150 million.

Besides the housing data, this week's calendar also features surveys on manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia and New York regions as well as weekly jobless claims.

Dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week combined with soft inflation data saw investors temper their expectations for tighter monetary policy in the months ahead. Futures traders are pricing in around a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

In addition to the data, this also marks the first big week of the second-quarter earnings season, with blue chips Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and General Electric (NYSE:GE) among some of the names reporting results this week.

Headlines from Washington regarding President Donald Trump's health-care plan will also be in focus.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

The week ahead: 5 things to watch on the economic calendar
 

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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 9:58AM GMT
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Georgi.Shares now are 40 , 50 % overestimated , and the probability for further growth declines ,though supported by fed and ecb money there is only risk so do not buy with such a risk , they want to steal your money , not to make you rich..FED strategy is gradual increase of stocks now propped by printed money , so that it will look like there is some year of growth , not decline due to severe over evaluation. If public get involved to put their money in stock gamble that will use the over evaluated shares of rich , the rich endeavor will work . If EU and USA do not manage with this cheating of their citizens for 1 , 2 months there will be inflation and devaluation of currencies.
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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 9:56AM GMT
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The stock markets have up to a month increase not year or half needed by rich in usa and eu to sell you their overestimated shares before sharp decline. Upward movement recently is financial market manipulation with central bank and intermediaries collision. Check inflation alone , miracle is risky to close fed and ecb forever and not likely no irrational exuberance as cnn fear index is neutral for now..Ask draghi and yellen if they provide hidden money to banks to buy shares that are not accounted by fed and ecb ? When eu and usa citizens central banks measure alone inflation by a basket of products , are draghi and yellen afraid that citizens will take from jars money they keep from qe by some 1 trillion and other central banks return currency reserves to create strong inflation ?
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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 10:00AM GMT
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If fed print hidden money to give around to support market say 20 bn per day for a month this is some 2.5 % inflation per month added at least , for ecb 5 bn hidden printing per day will be some 1.5 % inflation for a month added. More inflation creates disturbances in us economy and reduces share prices. Fed and ecb gamble with you , with your own money.
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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 11:08AM GMT
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Check intermediaries that add constantly printed money to the market with algorithm . Ask usa and eu financial intermediaries who add liquidity for share demand , it there are money given to them with no document from fed or ecb for share bubble to steal from middle class. Still neither us middle class, nor foreigners are buying these shares and now the us rich hold nearly all shares , incapable to create profitable share bubble though abusing fed money printing in vein , for which you will pay with dollar price decrease vs foreign currencies and inflation vs domestic goods.. Fed should be involved in illegal money printing , which some 1 trillion money are given to intermediaries , who speculated with them on equity markets and continue to try to create irrational exuberance by gradually buying at higher prices and sell you over evaluated shares.. See fed balance sheet and m1 money
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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 11:10AM GMT
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aggregate for 10 years ,. . if then flat fed balance sheet could increase m1 , now there is some trillion added without any records at your account as inflation and dollar devaluation expected. It is like the trillion spent for banks bail out in 2009 but these money are gambled on stock exchanges as source on you account to steal money from you as they sell you shares.. In liquidity trap , there is no growth from added money and they should go as inflation fast. When hidden , and channeled at financial markets there is some very short run increase in share prices , but eventually no growth , no share prices effect. The professional holders of dollars as reserve money will envisage the decline and start to return reserves , that will further increase inflation and with avalanche effect that start in a day , and further the dollar devaluation. There are a lot of reserves hold.
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dasfasf asfsafasf
dasfasf asfsafasf Jul 16, 2017 12:14PM GMT
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The price of shares cannot increase fast to try for irrational exuberance as a lot of shares are offered by small investors out of collision and it explodes down when supply of shares exceeds demand with printed money. There will be no growth with such printed money as new credits are not given in liquidity trap, no growth achieved. When processes and understood this information for financial markets manipulation , there will be no bubble as one of the three nobel papers shows econo metrically .Ask draghi . Yellen publicly for as evidence. Trump resignation request is just a case to destruct you from this more important plot.. . . Similarly ecb is abusing target 2 mechanism for printing money. Follow the money given to italy , spain , portugal , greece for covering eu leaving deposits for over 1 trillion now. There are money printed and provided in germany , france , uk , deposits left there as well.
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