Investing.com - The Federal Reserve made abundantly clear last week that whether or not it would hike rates in June is dependent on the data, leaving markets to watch the key dates for signals that could decide whether the U.S. central bank will continue monetary policy tightening at their next meeting.
“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the committee's 2% objective," the minutes from the April 26-27 meeting revealed last Wednesday.
With second quarter growth figures not being released until after the June 15 decision on July 29 and while markets still only currently price in the probability of a June rate hike at 34%, here is a list of key dates which could push not only those odds in either direction, but also might sway the current stance of Fed officials themselves:
May 25: The advance goods trade balance for April will give an indication of the balance of exports and imports at the start of the second quarter.
May 26: April durable goods orders, especially the core number, will gauge ordering trends and manufacturing activity.
May 27: Though the Fed had indicated that its focus is on second quarter growth, the second estimate for the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be watched. Expectations are for an upward revision to 0.9% from the prior 0.5%.
May 27: Fed chair Janet Yellen could give some indications on her read of the economy or plans for monetary policy in conversations with a Harvard University professor after accepting an award from the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.
May 31: April PCE inflation will be in focus as the Fed continues to evaluate price stability, while personal income and spending data for the same month will help gauge the strength of purchases by the American consumer.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence for May will be in focus, especially after April retail sales and the May University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey posted strong results.
June 1: ISM manufacturing numbers for May will be key after Markit’s own preliminary report showed the sector creeping towards stagnation.
The Beige Book will give the outlook on current economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts.
June 3: The May Employment Report is expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged despite an increase of 170,000 nonfarm payrolls. Consensus forecasts average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2%.
An upbeat employment report would help support the case for the Fed to steadily tighten monetary policy this year.
The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) will give an indication of the overall health of the activity in the services sector.
June 6: Yellen will give a speech at the World Affairs Council. The announcement of her appearance sparked speculation that should could use the event to give the market indications just prior the blackout period for the June 15 decision.
June 8: April JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey), mentioned by Yellen herself as one of the preferred barometers of the health of the labor market, will provide its latest read.
June 10: Revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May.
June 14: May retail sales will give the Fed a last glimpse at consumer buying power.