Intuit slumps to more than five-year low on slashed TurboTax outlook

Investing.com - Shares of Intuit slumped to a more than five-year low on Thursday, after the group lowered its annual revenue forecast for its key tax filing service, TurboTax.

Along with posting better-than-expected results for the fiscal third quarter thanks to Intuit’s AI-driven platform strategy gaining traction, the software firm also announced plans to cut its workforce by 17% to streamline operations.

The firm said it expects to incur restructuring charges of $300 million to $340 million, largely in the fourth quarter.

The financial software maker’s shares have fallen about 51% this year, as fears that AI tools capable of automating complex tasks could pose a substantial threat to traditional software businesses weighed heavily on the sector.

Intuit now expects full-year revenue of $21.34 billion - $21.37 billion, representing growth of approximately 13-14%, up from its prior guidance of $21 billion to $21.2 billion, which implied growth of approximately 12% to 13%. The new guidance is above the consensus estimate of $21.25 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share are now expected in the range of $23.80-23.85, also topping the average analyst estimate of $23.22, and implying growth of around 18%. This compares with the previous guidance of $22.98 to $23.18.

Intuit trimmed its annual revenue forecast for TurboTax, now expecting fiscal 2026 sales of $5.277-5.282 billion, down from a prior range of $5.305-5.330 billion.

On a post-earnings call, CEO Sasan Goodarzi said total IRS tax filings are projected to fall nearly 30 basis points this season, around 2 million below broader economic forecasts and the sharpest industry-wide contraction since the post-COVID period.

For the fourth quarter, Intuit guided for revenue growth of 11-12% and adjusted EPS of $3.56-3.62, ahead of the $3.13 consensus estimate.

Asked whether the market was fairly pricing the AI disruption risk, Intuit CFO Sandeep Aujla pushed back.

“We can’t speak to market pricing, but we can speak to what we’re seeing in our business,” he told Investing.com.

“Customers buy confidence, not code — which is why they spend at least 7 times more on accounting and tax experts than on software alone,” he said.

Aujla also said that the company sees AI “as a clear net tailwind.”

Intuit is a financial technology company whose products include tax preparation platform TurboTax, small business accounting tool QuickBooks, personal finance marketplace Credit Karma and email marketing service Mailchimp.

“Our models are built on decades of actual filer and business data, not generalized data from the open internet, and we deliver personalized and actionable outcomes that probabilistic, generic agents cannot replicate,” Aujla continued.

For the third quarter ended April 30, Intuit reported revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10% year-on-year, and in line with the $8.54 billion expected by analysts.

Adjusted EPS came in at $12.80, surpassing the $12.57 consensus estimate. Adjusted operating income rose 8% to $4.68 billion.

"We delivered strong third-quarter results, driven by our AI-driven expert platform strategy,” Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi said in the press release.

"The powerful combination of Intuit’s proprietary data, domain-specific AI platform capabilities, and AI-powered human expertise is setting the standard for trusted financial intelligence,” he added.

The Consumer segment, which includes TurboTax and Credit Karma, generated revenue of $5.3 billion, up 8%. TurboTax Live returns grew 38% year-on-year, with overall Live revenues up 36%, though heavy promotional activity weighed on average revenue per unit, which fell 1%. The growth rate represented a slowdown from 47% in the prior year.

"While Q3 results failed to provide the positive catalyst we had expected from a strong TurboTax Live performance, we see a solid catalyst path over the next few months with the stock at a very undemanding valuation versus the durable 15%+ earnings growth," Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss commented. 

Intuit repurchased $1.6 billion of stock in the third quarter and received board approval for a new $8 billion buyback authorization.

The board also approved a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, a 15% increase year-on-year.

(Scott Kanowsky contributed reporting)