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Dollar Down, Focus Now on Central Bank Policy Decisions

ForexSep 06, 2021 10:39PM ET
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By Gina Lee – The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining near recent lows. Investors now await a central bank policy decision from Australia, and other central bank decisions due throughout the week, for any clues that they will begin asset tapering.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged down 0.11% to 92.112 by 10:33 PM ET (2:33 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.03% to 109.80.

The AUD/USD pair edge d up 0.12% to 0.7448 and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.06% to 0.7141.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.03% to 6.4559 and the GBP/USD pair edged up 0.12% to 1.3851.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to delay beginning asset tapering after the latest U.S. jobs report, the focus is now on policy decisions outside the U.S.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will go first, handing down its decision later in the day.

If RBA pauses its asset tapering plans, investors are likely to sell the Australian dollar and possibly push it towards its support level of around $0.7420. A hawkish central bank would send the currency higher, according to IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda.

Next is the Bank of Canada, which will hand down its policy decision on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar remains near its highest level in about three weeks and is also above its 200-day moving average at C$1.2525 per dollar.

The European Central Bank’s policy decision will round up the week on Thursday.

The U.S. report, released during the previous week, showed that non-farm payrolls were lower than expected and put paid to expectations that the Fed would announce it is beginning asset tapering in September.

But how long this delay could be will not be clear for another month, NatWest's head strategist John Briggs said in a note.

"It does not necessarily derail our current timeline of a November announcement for December start. The next payroll report on Oct. 8 now looms very large as the main event in considering the timing of asset tapering,” the note added.

In Asia Pacific, Chinese trade data, including imports, exports and the trade balance, will be released later in the day. Further data, including the consumer and producer price indexes, will be released on Thursday.

Dollar Down, Focus Now on Central Bank Policy Decisions

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