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Bitcoin hits 18-month peak with 120% annual gain, FOMO still muted

EditorNikhilesh Pawar
Published 11/17/2023, 09:26 AM
Updated 11/17/2023, 09:26 AM
© Reuters.

NEW YORK - Bitcoin has reached an 18-month high, marking a significant 120% gain year-to-date, yet the expected widespread Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) typically seen in bull markets has not fully materialized. Analysis from Look into Bitcoin reveals that while there's been an increase in activity among smaller wallets, the re-engagement of short-term traders within the network is still minimal.

Recent insights show that younger bitcoins are beginning to move more frequently on-chain, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Philip Swift of Look Into Bitcoin used the realized cap HODL waves to demonstrate a subtle rise in lower timeframe waves, indicating that despite the price surge, the market is not experiencing the usual FOMO as newer coins are being transacted.

The data also sheds light on the current state of holders' profits. According to the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, most Bitcoin owners are seeing profits. However, those who invested around the peak of late 2021 are closely watching for a potential break-even point of $39,000 to realize gains.

Further data from CryptQuant indicates that only a small fraction, about 11.6%, of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) are underwater at present. This suggests that most investors are currently in profit. Despite this optimistic sign for many holders, caution remains due to recent selling activity by large-scale investors, commonly known as whales. This behavior underscores the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency markets and highlights the importance of thorough research before making investment decisions.

The RHODL Waves metric also points to a budding increase in coin circulation that could signal an early-stage bull market. However, it's worth noting that despite most UTXO age bands being profitable, those held for 18 months to three years have not yet seen profits.

As Bitcoin maintains its momentum above its previous bear market trading range, market participants continue to watch for signs of increased speculative interest which could drive further price movements. The current landscape presents a mixed picture: significant price recovery juxtaposed with cautious investor sentiment and a notable absence of widespread speculative trading.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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