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Deere shares 'hold' rating, price target nudged to $402

EditorLina Guerrero
Published 05/16/2024, 02:06 PM

On Thursday, Deutsche Bank maintained a Hold rating on Deere & Company (NYSE:DE), with a slight increase in the price target to $402 from $401. The adjustment reflects a cautious stance following Deere's announcement of a reduced net income guidance for fiscal year 2024 (FY24). The company now anticipates a net income of $7 billion, an 8% decrease from the previous midpoint estimate, signaling a potential 20% downside to second-half forecasts by analysts.

Deere's revision comes amid expectations of a further decline in agricultural production in the latter half of the year. The company aims to align its production with retail demand for FY25, addressing high dealer inventories. While Deutsche Bank acknowledges Deere's proactive strategy of managing potential excesses, there remains uncertainty regarding future retail demand and the recovery trajectory.

The analyst's revised model projects a full-year net income of $7.07 billion for Deere, marginally surpassing the company's updated guidance. This figure takes into account the recent financial performance, including a significant beat in core segment income for the second quarter of FY24 compared to consensus and Deutsche Bank's own estimates.

Deere's revised financial outlook reflects a conservative approach as it prepares for anticipated market conditions in FY25. The company's decision to adjust production in advance is seen as a lesson learned from past cycles, aiming to avoid the repercussions of overproduction and inflated inventories.

Investors who had hoped for Deere to maintain its previous guidance were met with the revised forecast, which has factored into Deutsche Bank's latest assessment of the stock. The minor price target increase to $402 represents a nuanced view of the company's financial health and market position.

InvestingPro Insights

Deere & Company's recent earnings guidance revision has prompted a reevaluation of its stock. According to InvestingPro data, Deere (NYSE:DE) boasts a market capitalization of $110.94 billion and a P/E ratio of 11.54, which adjusts to 11.16 when looking at the last twelve months as of Q1 2024. This relatively low P/E ratio, especially in light of near-term earnings growth, suggests that the stock may be undervalued, aligning with one of the InvestingPro Tips that highlights its trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth.

With a dividend yield of 1.42% and a notable 22.5% dividend growth in the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, Deere continues to reward shareholders. This is further emphasized by another InvestingPro Tip pointing out that the company has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years and has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to consistent shareholder returns.

Despite a forecasted sales decline in the current year, Deere's strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 15.21%, indicates robust short-term performance. Investors looking to delve deeper into Deere's financial health and future prospects can find additional insights and tips on InvestingPro, with 14 more tips available. To access these valuable insights, consider using the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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