Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
Cyber Monday Extended SALE: Up to 60% OFF InvestingPro+ CLAIM OFFER

Oil Tanks 2nd Day in Row as OPEC Disunity Bites

Commodities Jul 07, 2021 03:10PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Reuters.
 
LCO
-1.68%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
CL
-1.08%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
NYF
-2.46%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
USO
-0.87%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

(Updates with Brent settlement)

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com - OPEC’s disunity could undo oil’s near-perfect rally.

Crude prices tanked for a second day in a row, falling as much as 2% to extend the near 4% drop in the previous session, on worries that more countries that are members or allies to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will overproduce after Saudi Arabia and the UAE — who dominate the cartel — failed to agree on August export quotas.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for U.S. oil, settled down $1.17, or 1.6%, at $72.20 a barrel. WTI lost 3.8% on Tuesday for its sharpest one-day loss in three weeks.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $1.10, or 1.5%, at $73.43.  Brent lost 3.4% in the previous session.

Until last week’s meeting of the 13-member Saudi led-OPEC and its 10 Russian-steered allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — oil had a near-perfect rally, with WTI up 57% on the year and Brent up almost 50%.

But the fallout between one-time staunch OPEC members the Saudis and the Emiratis was threatening to undo the discipline and cohesiveness of the larger 23-member OPEC+  alliance that had succeeded in bringing oil prices from pandemic lows of minus $40 per barrel for WTI to current seven-year highs through production cuts.

“It is unrealistic to think that failing to agree on output levels from August onwards would mean that output remains unchanged, particularly when you consider that the reason there is a disagreement is that the UAE wants to increase its baseline if the deal is extended beyond April 2022,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“There is still likely to be plenty of noise around what OPEC+ may do in the coming weeks, and so that means volatility is likely to remain.”

OPEC+ was supposed to have agreed on a hike of at least 400,000 barrels per day for August. 

The Saudis had proposed that OPEC+ raise output in stages to a net of 2 million barrels daily between August and December. They also suggested extending withholding the full production capacity of all OPEC+ members till the end of next year instead of April 2022, without an adjustment to baseline production levels.

The United Arab Emirates, however, was unhappy about the baseline from which their production cuts were calculated, arguing that the level, set at the height of last year’s pandemic, was too low. Abu Dhabi has invested billions of dollars since to increase its production capacity and wants to pump more to make good on that money. 

UAE oil production hit a record of more than 4 million barrels a day in April last year during a brief supply war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Prior to that, the country had only ever pumped more than 3.2 million barrels a day for a whole month twice — in November and December 2018.

Crude prices initially spiked on Monday when news spilled out there would be no output hikes for August as any further squeeze of oil supplies in a global economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic was seen as bullish. 

And although the absence of an OPEC+ deal initially seemed good for the market, traders eventually sensed that there was nothing to bind those in the alliance to tight production limits.

“The risk of a no deal raising noncompliance, White House urging a compromise, a rapid spreading virus variant, and a very overbought market all helped trigger the correction which was then fed some additional fuel from a stronger dollar,” Saxo Bank said, referring to the Biden administration’s concerns about OPEC’s behavior which was fueling huge US inflation from oil.

“While the longer-term outlook looks bullish, short-term uncertainties may lead to increased volatility, not least considering the time of year where summer vacations swing into full gear, thereby removing liquidity from absent traders,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team said.

Traders will also be on the lookout for data on weekly U.S. oil inventories due after Wednesday’s market settlements for WTI and Brent.

The data, due from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 PM ET (20:30 GMT), will come before Thursday’s official inventory update for the week ended July 2 by the Energy Information Administration.

According to a consensus of analysts tracked by Investing.com, U.S. crude crude stockpiles likely fell by 4.03 million barrels last week, after the drop of 6.72 million in the previous week.

Gasoline inventories likely fell by 2.2 million barrels versus the rise of 1.52 million in the prior week, consensus shows.

And stockpiles of distillates, made up of diesel and heating oil, likely increased by 171,000 barrels last week after falling by 869,000 the week before.

Oil Tanks 2nd Day in Row as OPEC Disunity Bites
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email