Week in Review Part IV: Random Musings

Rick Santorum bowed out of the Republican presidential nomination race, leaving Mitt Romney to finally focus on President Obama in what I first wrote last fall will be the ugliest race since 1860. Santorum was behind in the polls in his native Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 24, the delegate math wasn’t in his favor, and he is in debt.

Needless to say there remains bad blood between the Romney and Santorum camps and to his credit, Santorum did win 11 states, but that took a toll on Romney, as some of the below polling shows. Romney also had to spend millions beating back Santorum, campaign dollars he had hoped to use in the general election campaign against the president. At the end of February, Romney’s campaign coffers had about $7.2 million to President Obama’s $84 million, though both war chests will now grow, including the ability to tap party resources.

Obama told donors this week, “This election will probably have the biggest contrast that we’ve seen maybe since the Johnson-Goldwater election, maybe before that.”

Romney replied on Tuesday, “This game, this populism of trying to go and divide America, is not only wrong, it’s dangerous.”
John Podhoretz / New York Post

“Mitt Romney’s nomination was certain as long ago as December because he was, when it came right down to it, the only serious candidate in the race – the only candidate who combined intense preparation on issues, an overarching and coherent theme and the necessary fund-raising prowess to prevail in a contest dominated by cringe-inducing silliness.

“Yes, Santorum tied Romney in Iowa and Newt Gingrich blew Romney away in South Carolina – but even then, even serious political types who didn’t want to see Romney as the nominee couldn’t quite envision a way for either of the others to actually win….

“For most of the past year, the political coverage of Romney on both right and left has centered on his weaknesses – how he’s failed to stir Republican passions, how he’s been inconstant in his positions over time, how he put his dog on the roof of his car in 1983, how his profession of a minority faith is problematic.

“But today, perhaps, it’s worth taking a moment to look at Romney’s demonstrable strengths.

“He spent three years patiently building an organization, state by state – which proved exceptionally important with the primary rule changes initiated by the GOP in 2010.

“He became extraordinarily fluent…on the issues. This was notable because, in his 2008 run, he’d been quite ham-fisted and inarticulate on matters that hadn’t been in his wheelhouse as Massachusetts governor.

“In part as a result of his command of material and his understanding of the importance of tone, he was without question the most impressive and strategic performer over the course of the 20 GOP debates….

“And Romney showed a talent for aggressive confrontation without appearing obnoxious. He took Rick Perry out practically single-handedly in their first face-to-face encounter and took Newt Gingrich down in two successive knockouts between South Carolina and Florida.

“Finally, he showed that he could dish it out when he inundated his rivals with well-conceived negative ads that left them sputtering impotently – a mark of the toughness he is going to need to face President Obama in the fall.

“Perhaps even more important, he showed that he could take it – that he could withstand Newtmania and the Santorum Surge without melting down, panicking, losing faith or changing his strategy to satisfy the demands of pundits who didn’t necessarily wish him well.

“That ability to stand his ground and maintain his sangfroid will also stand him in good stead against his formidable Democratic rival.
“Time to get on with it, then.”

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, President Obama has double-digit leads over Romney on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care. Obama has a better than 2-to-1 advantage as the more likable of the two (64-26). And Romney faces a huge deficit among female voters.

Obama’s overall approval rating remains at 50%, but nearly half of all Americans say his handling of the economy is a major reason to oppose his reelection.

Romney’s only big advantage is on the issue of who would do a better job dealing with the federal budget deficit (51-38).

In a Romney-Obama matchup, with the poll being held prior to Santorum’s exit, the president holds a 51-44 lead.

Romney trails by 19 among women (Obama won the demographic by 13 points in 2008). The president, on the other hand, loses white men with college degrees by a 57-39 margin.

76% of Americans say the economy is still in recession, even though by definition the recession ended three years ago.

A story on ten swing states for 2012 in the Wall Street Journal, in conjunction with the Cook Political Report, shows that Obama leads Romney in all ten, though he also won them in 2008…Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Dick Morris & Eileen McGann / New York Post

“The shape of President Obama’s reelection strategy is coming clear. The key elements:

“ 1) Don’t run on your record; run as if there were no incumbent.

“ 2) Stress class warfare; exploit fear of Republican spending cuts. Harp on the negatives.

“ 3) Hide the negatives about your record in a miasma of general pessimism. (Medicare was broken before we got here; headwinds slowed the economy.)….

“Obama’s appeals to fear, envy and class antagonisms haven’t been working lately. But even if they start to, he’s sacrificing the themes of optimism and hope.

“A dour, bitter Obama, lashing out at the rich and peddling fear of the Republicans, can’t compete with a sunny, smiling Mitt Romney. He’s largely stuck talking about who Romney is – an unbecoming attack line that doesn’t inspire faith in a national leader.

“Were we France or Italy, perhaps this rhetoric would fall on receptive ears conditioned by years of discord. Here in America? Not yet.”

Democrats from President Obama on down were left scrambling after party strategist Hilary Rosen, a CNN contributor, said of Mitt Romney’s wife, Ann, “His wife has actually never worked a day in her life. She’s never really dealt with the kinds of economic issues that a majority of women in this country are facing.”
Doh!

“It was the wrong thing to say,” President Obama declared. “There’s no tougher job than being a mom…That’s work, so, anybody who would argue otherwise probably needs to rethink their statement.” Michelle Obama tweeted her own support for women and mothers.

Ann Romney tweeted for the first time: “I made a choice to stay home and raise five boys. Believe me, it was hard work.”
She later said on Fox News:

“Other women make other choices, to have a career and raise family, which I think Hilary Rosen has actually done herself. I respect that, that’s wonderful. But, you know, there are other people that have a choice. We have to respect women and all those choices that they make. And, by the way, let me give a shout out to all the dads that are at home raising kids.”

Rosen’s communications and public relations firm, SKD Knickerbocker, where she is a managing director, has been paid $120,000 by the Democratic National Committee in this election cycle. She later rethought her stance:

“I apologize to Ann Romney and anyone else who was offended. Let’s declare peace in this phony war and go back to focus on the substance.”

At a conference in Manhattan, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said America has become a couch-potato nation, citing a “paternalistic entitlement society.”

“I’ve never seen a less optimistic time in my lifetime in this country.” Christie added, the government is now telling people, “‘Stop dreaming, stop striving, we’ll take care of you.’

“That will not just bankrupt us financially, it will bankrupt us morally, because when the American people no longer believe that this is a place where only their willingness to work hard and to act with honor and integrity and ingenuity determines their success in life, then we’ll have a bunch of people sitting on a couch, waiting for their next government check….

“I think politicians get themselves into the biggest trouble when they care more about being loved than being respected. That’s why we run up these deficits we run up. That’s why we can’t say no to anything, because we care too much about being loved.”

9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheik Mohammed, and four of his henchmen will be arraigned on May 5 at a Guantanamo Bay military tribunal. They face the death penalty. Of course some wonder why this wasn’t done sooner.

George Zimmerman was charged with second-degree murder in the death of Trayvon Martin. Zimmerman told police he was fighting for his life in the altercation with Martin before he fired in self-defense. If convicted of murder in the second degree, Zimmerman would face a maximum sentence of life in prison. Zimmerman pled not guilty. Trayvon’s mother, Sybrina Fulton, admitted on “Today” on Thursday that her son’s death was “an accident.”

Newsweek conducted an exclusive poll on race relations in America. Among their findings:

Back in 2008, 52% of Americans told Pew Research Center that they expected race relations to get better as a result of Obama’s election; only 9% anticipated a decline.

But today that 43-point gap has vanished. According to the Newsweek survey, only 32% of Americans now think that race relations have improved since the president’s inauguration; 30% believe they have gotten worse.

51% of whites believe Obama’s been unhelpful in bridging the country’s racial divide.

But…when Newsweek asked: Is racism a big problem today in America? 60% of blacks think yes. Only 19% of whites agree.
Was Trayvon Martin’s death racially motivated? 80% of blacks said yes. 31% of whites agreed.

78% of blacks believe President Obama’s comments about the shooting were appropriate. Only 28% of whites felt they were.

Interesting story in the Wall Street Journal on the recent surge in priestly ordinations. According to the Vatican, there were 5,000 more Catholic priests world-wide in 2009 than there were in 1999.  The situation in the U.S. is still dire but improving.

In an interview for Smithsonian magazine, “Simpsons” creator Matt Groening said Homer et al live in Springfield, Oregon, 100 miles south of Portland.

“When I grew up, I realized it was just a fictitious name,” he said. “I also figured out that Springfield was one of the most common names for a city in the U.S.

“In anticipation of the success of the show, I thought, ‘This will be cool; everyone will think it’s their Springfield.’ And they do,’” he told Smithsonian.

Ahead of the “The Simpsons Movie” in 2007, USA TODAY held a contest to pick the Simpsons’ ‘real’ hometown and the Springfield in Vermont beat the Oregon version.

But wait…there’s more! Groening said at week’s end (in TV Guide) that his comments were misinterpreted.
“I never said Springfield was in Oregon.”

But he did. Executive producer Al Jean told TV Guide: “There is no specific state that Springfield is in, and we will never reveal that secret…except this coming Sunday at 8.”

Mirlande Wilson, the McDonald’s worker in Maryland who insisted she hit the Mega Millions jackpot, now insists she didn’t lie when she told her lottery pool co-workers – and us – that she won.

“I don’t know who lied. I’m not the liar!” Wilson said after Maryland officials said three others from the state held the winning ticket in an equal partnership. “Let them think what they want, let them say what they want to say. I’m happy.”

Good lord…yet another Sign of the Apocalypse. [The Kansas winner chose to remain anonymous, while no one has come forward in Illinois, where winners have one year to claim a jackpot, though you have to reveal some details about yourself, but not your name.]

Tim Tebow packed Easter Sunday services at the Celebration Church in Georgetown, Texas (near Austin). Aside from his comments on faith, he took a shot at professional athletes who insist they are not role models.
“Yes you are. You’re just not a good one.”

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
God bless America.

Gold closed at $1659
Oil, $102.85

Returns for the week 4/9-4/13

Dow Jones -1.6% [12849]
S&P 500 -2.0% [1370]
S&P MidCap -2.0%
Russell 2000 -2.7%
Nasdaq -2.3% [3011]

Returns for the period 1/1/12-4/13/12

Dow Jones +5.2%
S&P 500 +9.0%
S&P MidCap +9.7%
Russell 2000 +7.5%
Nasdaq +15.6%

Bulls 48.4
Bears 21.5 [Source: Investors Intelligence]