Nvidia, Software Earnings Present Next Big Tests for AI-Driven Market

Key highlights:

• Chinese stocks in Hong Kong jumped after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, cutting duties on shipments to the U.S. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose up to 2.8%, led by megacaps; Alibaba and Tencent +3%, and Meituan +5%.
• U.S. natural gas futures jumped as much as 6.8% to $3.253/MMBtu amid a major Northeast snowstorm that closed schools, disrupted flights and is expected to boost heating demand, while LNG exports also rose.
• Copper rose for a second day as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy weighed on the dollar; LME futures neared $13,000/ton, extending last week’s modest gains as a weaker greenback supported commodity prices.
• Bitcoin fell as much as 4.8% to about $64,300 in early Asia trade amid renewed tariff uncertainty; Ether dropped about 5.2% after U.S. officials said existing trade deals remain intact despite the Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs.
• The dollar slid against major peers as renewed tariff plans from President Trump raised policy uncertainty; the yen, Swiss franc and Swedish krona led gains after Trump announced a 15% global levy following the Supreme Court ruling, a move Goldman strategists say weighed on the dollar.
• Gold rose as much as 1.4% toward $5,180/oz, lifted by trade-policy uncertainty and a weaker dollar after President Trump announced a 15% global tariff following the Supreme Court ruling.
• Oil slid as investors weighed the chances of a US‑Iran nuclear deal and awaited further talks this week amid US forces massing in the region; Brent dipped toward $71/bbl and WTI also fell after President Trump said he was considering a limited strike on Iran.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures slipped Sunday night. President Donald Trump increased the global tariff to 15% on Saturday (up from 10% set the previous day), and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is due to report earnings.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 ended multi-week losing streaks last week, gaining about 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. Equities were lifted after the Supreme Court on Friday struck down parts of President Trump’s tariff measures, although the White House said it would pursue other options to enforce its tariff agenda.

US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:

President Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday follows his administration’s court loss over tariff policies and may outline his response plus plans on housing and taxes. Markets will also watch Fed Governor Christopher Waller and other Fed speakers this week for clues on interest-rate direction amid softening inflation and a still-strong labor market.

S&P Case-Shiller home prices are due, highlighting affordability strains, and Friday’s wholesale inflation report will follow recent consumer data showing sharper-than-expected easing.

Economic calendar:

Monday, Feb. 23

• Factory orders (Dec).
• Fed speaker: Governor Christopher Waller.

Tuesday, Feb. 24

• State of the Union (President Donald Trump).
• S&P Case-Shiller (Dec), Wholesale inventories (Dec), Consumer confidence (Feb).
• Fed speakers: Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller; Boston Fed President Susan Collins; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Thursday, Feb. 26

• Initial jobless claims (week ended Feb. 21).
• Fed speaker: Vice Chair Michelle Bowman.

Friday, Feb. 27

• Producer Price Index (Jan).
• Construction spending (Dec, Nov).
• Chicago Business Barometer (Feb).

Earnings calendar:

This week, 55 S&P 500 firms, including the world’s most valuable company, are due to report. To date, about 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported: roughly 75% beat EPS estimates and over 70% topped revenue forecasts.

Monday, Feb. 23

Dominion Energy (D), Hims & Hers (HIMS)

Tuesday, Feb. 24

Home Depot (HD), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), American Tower (AMT), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Workday (WDAY), HP (HPQ)

Wednesday, Feb. 25

Nvidia (NVDA), TJX (TJX), Salesforce (CRM), Lowe’s (LOW), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Synopsys (SNPS), Medline (MDLN), Snowflake (SNOW), Agilent (A), Paramount Skydance (PSKY)

Thursday, Feb. 26

Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto‑Dominion (TD), Intuit (INTU), Canadian Imperial Bank (CM), Dell (DELL), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Baidu (BIDU), CoreWeave (CRWV)

Saturday, Feb. 28

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B)

Nvidia (NVDA) has traded sideways for four months amid AI‑related headwinds. Its fiscal Q4 results and guidance, due late Wednesday, could provide a catalyst. Street expectations: EPS $1.52 (up 71%) on revenue $65.71 billion (up 67%). A strong report may ease worries over AI data‑center funding, TSMC capacity limits and China access.

TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), the parent of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, reports Wednesday. Analysts forecast revenue up 6% year‑over‑year and EPS of $1.39 (a 13% increase).

Toronto‑Dominion Bank (TD) reports before the opening Thursday. Street expectations: revenue +15% year‑over‑year, EPS +18%, and net interest margins rising for a fifth straight quarter.

Apple’s annual shareholders meeting is Tuesday, where CEO Tim Cook is expected to discuss Apple Intelligence and integrating Google’s Gemini into Siri.

Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas (Mon–Thu) with Michael Saylor on bitcoin and AI

MIT Energy Conference in Cambridge (Mon–Tue), focusing on grid resilience, geopolitical risks, and power demands from the AI/data‑center boom.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• The DJIA index bounced off the rising‑channel base at 49,250 on Friday.
• As long as 49,250 holds, a move toward 50,300 is likely this week.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• NDX broke a key support line in early February.
• The index is trading in a 24,400–25,370 range, with 24,900 as the mid‑range pivot.
• A move to 25,370 is likely as long as 24,900 holds on pullbacks.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• SPX is consolidating inside a rectangle, signaling a pause before the next breakout.
• The index has held the 6,780–7,010 range since mid‑January 2026.
• A push toward 7,010 looks likely.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Feb 23 - 27, 2026 suggests the U.S. Indices would US indices start next week bearish, ending the week mixed-to-bearish!
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• The sentiment readings are driven by a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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