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Week Ahead: Stock Rally To Endure But Beware 3 Red Flags, Sector Rotation

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewSep 06, 2020 07:36AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-200536548
Week Ahead: Stock Rally To Endure But Beware 3 Red Flags, Sector Rotation
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Sep 06, 2020 07:36AM ET
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  • Various narratives aim to explain the tech rout
  • Gold and dollar retest crucial supply-demand strongholds
  • Oil falls below $40

Though US equities rebounded somewhat on Friday, after a sharp, tech sector-led mega cap selloff on Thursday, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 still all finished in the red for a second day, ending trade at a two-week low. As well—and not surprising—volatility returned to Wall Street as the week came to a close.

It was the wildest ride for investors since June, across a broad variety of asset classes, but technology shares provided the most brutal roller coaster drop.

Tech Sector Plunge With No Obvious Trigger

While the S&P 500 Index trimmed a 3% drop to an 0.8% loss on Friday, the NASDAQ indices fell more than 5% after just the first two hours of trade. Both the Composite and the NASDAQ 100 each pared the drop to -1.27%.

Holders of the biggest technology companies required the strongest nerves. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) plunged as much as 8.1%, yet managed to finish in the green, up 0.07%. Those trading other big names weren’t as lucky. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) closed 3.1% in the red, followed closely by Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), which lost 2.9% of value.

Financials continued to outperform, even amid the tech rout, offsetting losses on the broader index. The sector climbed 0.75%, providing a boost to the benchmark along with Industrials, (+0.25%) and Materials, (+0.06%). However, the remaining sectors all closed lower, with Communication Services the laggard, (-1.8%), followed by Technology (-1.4%).

Narratives vary regarding what triggered the selloff. There's no obvious catalyst, but suspected culprits range from algos, to options, to simply good old-fashioned profit-taking for stocks that have been stretched out.

This makes sense to us since prior to last week, the SPX climbed for four weeks in a row, buoyed by tech equities to new records.

A possibile explanation: sector rotation, where investors shift out of an overbought segment, in order to take their profits and bet on an oversold segment of the market. Should that prove true, it could be the best thing for the equity market—by driving a healthy, sustainable uptrend as participants adapt to cyclical trends. Otherwise, the market will simply form a bubble, which will eventually burst.

That's not to say that after weak hands have been shaken out technology stocks can’t keep advancing. After all, we're living in a work-from-home environment which should be highly positive for tech. In fact, even when the pandemic is eradicated, it's likely the world we once considered normal will have changed forever, with jobs restructured to allow employees to work from home more frequently, or even regularly. 

As readers know, we have been stubbornly bearish, notwithstanding the exuberant rally. We continue to believe it was disconnected from economic fundamentals. After all, during the same quarter when the best returns in decades were posted, US GDP came in at an abysmal -32%, the largest quarterly decline on record, more than triple the previous worst US quarter, post World War II, (Q1 1958) and four times larger than the worst quarter seen during the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

We continue to argue that investors have been reading too much into future growth after the wildly better-than-expected data. And we keep reminding everyone that just recently we also saw the fastest bear market drop and rebound and the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Coronavirus worries—which remain ongoing, at least until a vaccine or cure has been found—may have fueled the descent, but what drove the seeming recovery is equally clear, aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus by governments and central banks. And since it's unprecedented, no one can know how far we can rely on factors for a continued uptrend.

Still, technicals signal the S&P 500's rally may not be over just yet.

SPX Daily
SPX Daily

After besting the level hit on Feb. 19, the uptrend was officially extended when a new high was established on Aug. 18. Note though, that despite the sharp selloff, the index found support by the previous record-high. On the other hand, it fell below its uptrend line since the March bottom and the MACD flashed a sell signal, but to be fair two previous signals from the MACD proved incorrect.

So, though the price fell below its uptrend on Friday, we're not excited by the move. This isn’t the first time the index has slipped below the line that connects the lows from the bottom of the trend. The benchmark has already dipped below three previous uptrend lines.

What's key is the direction of the peaks and troughs. And so far, not one has failed. So we're placing our faith in that for now.

This doesn’t mean that we're no longer anxious about what we’ve expressed above about the market's optimistic divergence from other, more pessimistic fundamentals. And we're also concerned by a long-term Broadening Pattern, visible via the SPX's monthly chart, which connotes a big move upcoming. Plus, classic literature puts this pattern at market tops.

SPX Monthly
SPX Monthly

However, such patterns tend to develop over months, while this one has been in the making for years, since January 2018. It’s noteworthy that last week's selloff came after the price attempted to penetrate the top of the pattern, demonstrating the importance of that trend line.

Only after the price will penetrate the top boundary of this pattern and find support above it—specifically after forming an ascending peak-trough formation above it—would we stop caring about this pattern. Still, there will always be reasons to second-guess the market, but as long as the trend remains higher, we'll stick with that.

That doesn't mean, however, that we won't continue monitoring for red flags. Indeed, we've been focusing on the following three: the VIX, yields, including for the 10-year note and gold.

VIX Daily
VIX Daily

The VIX has yet to fall below the rising gap, corresponding to the Feb. 24 falling gap for equities. This means investors remain scared. As such, the index has managed to only close within the gap on a single day since.

Despite the best quarter for stocks in decades and a string of records, yields remain depressed, hovering near record lows, demonstrating that Treasuries continue to be in demand.

UST 10Y Daily
UST 10Y Daily

Are yields forming a H&S top? The MACD stubbornly returned to a sell signal and the ROC registered a blatant negative divergence, when momentum didn’t follow yields higher, showing a weak rally, which may turn out to be the head of the reversal pattern.

On Aug. 7, gold hit its first record high since Aug. 22, 2011, just 15 days shy of a full nine years at lower prices.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

The yellow metal is severely testing the bottom of its rising channel since the March bottom, together with equities and potentially completing back-to-back rising flags (blue) whose downward pressure is testing the bullish pennant (red).

So, while these three markets are raising significant red flags, the development isn't new...they have been doing for a while now. Our current philosophy, keep an eye on the flags but trust the trend.

In other news, on Friday, the Dollar Index ended a three day rally.

DXY Daily
DXY Daily

This was confirmed with back-to-back shooting stars hitting the resistance of a rising flag (red), following a bearish pennant (blue) below the falling channel since the March top, which appears to be cementing the top of a lower falling channel. However, the near -4% plunge before the pennant demands a much sharper downturn.

Oil sold off for the third day as the trading week came to a close, falling below $40, for the first time since July 9, as the pandemic keeps drivers off the streets, exacerbating weak demand.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

Technically, on Wednesday, what could have been a bullish pennant blew out. Price crossed below an uptrend line since May 22 as well as the 200 DMA on Friday. The $38 level seems to be a crucial support.

Week Ahead

All times listed are EDT

Monday

US, Canada markets closed for the Labor Day holiday

19:50: Japan – GDP: expected to plunge to -8.1% from -0.6%.

Tuesday

21:30: China – CPI: anticipated to drop to 0.4% from 0.6% previously.

Wednesday

8:00: US – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

10:00: US – JOLTs Job Openings: seen to edge higher to 6.000M from 5.889M.

10:00: Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision: forecast to remain steady at 0.25%.

Thursday

7:45: Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision: predicted to remain at 0.00%.

8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: previously printed at 881K.

8:30: US – PPI: forecast to fall to 0.2% from 0.6%.

8:30: Eurozone – ECB Press Conference

11:00: US – Crude Oil Inventories: likely jumped to -1.887M from -9.362M.

Friday

2:00: UK – GDP: consensus calls for -21.7% from -1.7% YoY.

2:00: UK – Manufacturing Production: expected to plummet to 5.0% from 11.0%.

8:30: US – Core CPI: to decline to 0.2% from 0.6%.

Week Ahead: Stock Rally To Endure But Beware 3 Red Flags, Sector Rotation
 

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Week Ahead: Stock Rally To Endure But Beware 3 Red Flags, Sector Rotation

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Comments (17)
Daniel Morel
Daniel Morel Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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I have been invested for 51 years after i got my first paycheck as a young engineer and bonus from my employer - i started with Mutual Funds at Fidelity and Vangard then some broad market ETF. I read but never follow any financial comentary i watch some financial channels for entertainment value - after 51 years my average is + 11.8% with a high of 38% and a low of - 11% - i was able to send to kids tp grad school / buy properties in New york / a house on a private island im Miami Beach and a flat In London. I am writing this note from a 27 meters charters sailing yacht facing the island of Milos in greece. Every hard working person can do that - just stick to one strategy - be patient - DO NOT FOLLOW financial advise
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Power Lord
Power Lord Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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I don't have that many years to live. maybe half of that.
Tommi Nuutinen
Tommi Nuutinen Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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exactly right. Patience is truly a virtue, when it comes to investing long- term. and fore the short-term invdstors with their pennystocks etc.. My point is-investing with patience and cold reasoning and thinking at least 3 years ahead, knowing as much as possible fabout the company's financials etc. that you are interested to invest. Now is maybe the best time to start long-term investments in tech/5G since .COM boom. good luck is allso needed, but not that much. Mu only advice is- NEVER gamble, when you invest.
Tommi Nuutinen
Tommi Nuutinen Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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Ps; I'm too lazy for a short-term investing. I invest now, so I would not have to do traditional work anymore in 2030😎
Daniel Morel
Daniel Morel Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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Tom Jones i would modestly disagree - we had a hard time evaluating mutal funds - exept when Peter lynch did an interview Morningstar and Value Line were only on paper weekly etc.... and yes brokers were fat with commissions. I had my account with Sanford Bernstein for 3 years where they achieved only half of my return during that period. I took my money back. My sense is that it is a lot easier to invest and make money today. Information is readily available. You just have to tune off Mr. Cramer and the likes and stop reading those chart analysis - the more screen the more data the lesser the returns for private investors.
Indiana Jones
Indiana Jones Sep 07, 2020 1:12AM ET
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Daniel Morel Agree that having the info readily available is an advantage for today’s investors vs the limited amount of data you had when you began investing. As an publishing equity analyst with bulge brackets and later as a PM with a few large hedge funds, I’ve met hundreds of C-suite folks, and even had the opportunity years ago to share a private meeting w “buy what you know” PL and the HAL mgmt team at an energy investor conference. Lesson: Never underestimate personal greed in a company’s operational and financial decisions. But as I mentioned, many folks are ill-equipped to analyze and/or act upon the available info properly, or simply do not have the time reuired to conduct a proper analysis and draw their own conclusions. Hence, you end up with sheep and stocks like ZM rising $140 in a single day based on momentum and the greater fool theory, which is that you buy an inflated stock hoping to sell it at an even higher price to another “investor”.
Tri Tran
Tri Tran Sep 07, 2020 12:29AM ET
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impressive article
Deepak Sharma
Deepak Sharma Sep 06, 2020 10:28PM ET
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great
Joe Duffy
Joe Duffy Sep 06, 2020 8:42PM ET
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Very interesting article. Stocks will be going up and down. Settle for small quick gains and keep most of money close wait for right time and then execute plan .
Antonio lopez avendano
Antonio lopez avendano Sep 06, 2020 5:32PM ET
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great analysis ,thanks a lot!!
Jeffrey Whittinghill
Jeffrey Whittinghill Sep 06, 2020 11:02AM ET
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Will tuesday go green for the first hour before plunging another 3-5%. I think maybe so. We all knew it was coming but still don’t know exactly when
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 11:02AM ET
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And the when is half the analysis.
Wijtha Gayan
Wijtha Gayan Sep 06, 2020 10:42AM ET
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you talking about dxy stille bearish ?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 10:42AM ET
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Yep
Telford Joseph
Telford Joseph Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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... I see a downside movement after the holidays ... many having to assess they positions after Thursday and Friday declines ... the overbought effect is still there ... and certainly the fear factor ... note Tesla dropped 8% post market
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Jeremy Williams
Jeremy Williams Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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Tesla is a fradulant joke. When are people going to realize this? Its P/E ratio is laughable!
Telford Joseph
Telford Joseph Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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Correct ... I had omitted that in error ... it wasn't added to the S&P ... however 3 others were ...all in all ... I see another 2 % or so decline early in the week ... Thursday’s sell-off already reflected investor fears that valuations for mega-cap tech stocks had overheated and these worries were exacerbated on Friday when the Financial Times reported that options trading by Japan’s Softbank had inflated these stocks
Cristian Hernández
Cristian Hernández Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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plus Buffett buying Japanese Sushis
Peter Dymond
Peter Dymond Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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If getting onto an index and thus having index funds purchasing shares to balance their fund, is stacked into valuation? We have a huge problem on our hands. Fundamentals, leadership and future outlook should be the only considerations. Well, fed policies too
Indiana Jones
Indiana Jones Sep 06, 2020 9:36AM ET
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Peter Dymond Exactly, but does the average investor have the ability to access, properly analyze and draw their own conclusions vis a vis fundamentals, management, etc? Besides published financial statements and Edgar filings, they have ZERO edge vs analysts and PMs on the street. I know this because I was one of them, and trust me, most people are investing very much in the blind. Financial advisors, especially those in small firms, have no direct edge, either. They’re very useful for portfolio asset allocation and helping investors develop a longer term plan and helping them execute it, but that’s about it. As far as individual stocks go, they generally do not add value and have few ideas of their own because most do not have the ability to analyze financial statements or the economy. They’re great salespeople who happen to work in the financial field and developed a book of business (AUM), of which they get paid a fixed percentage.
CJ PIPS
CJ PIPS Sep 06, 2020 9:22AM ET
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All this just sounds like confusion smh
jj mm
jj mm Sep 06, 2020 9:16AM ET
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don't forget that Fed is still putting money into the markets....that been said...I would buy any deep and that's what I am doing so far. spx500 will reach eventually 3600 for sure
Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Sep 06, 2020 9:16AM ET
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It is not buying the dip at all if you are buying someting like tesla that just dropped 5% after going up 800%. You would be still be buying very near all time high. You dont even need a brain to figure that out
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 9:16AM ET
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Peter BullMarket  I'm going on a limb here and presuming you're not a market expert, which means you can't get away with being condescending.
Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Sep 06, 2020 9:16AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen well, turns out that I was right
Pietro Rosato
Pietro Rosato Sep 06, 2020 9:12AM ET
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How would this all fair if the federal reserve stopped its manipulation of the markets?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 9:12AM ET
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Presumably with a crash.
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Sep 06, 2020 9:12AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen Agree. A huge crash since almost is leaning on the Fed implied put.
Plopseven Schwartz
Plopseven Schwartz Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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“Tech Sector Plunge With No Obvious Trigger”.....alright, I have to disagree with you here.
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Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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The trigger was clearly the stock slpit and tesla ofering another 5B shares
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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Peter BullMarket  Tesla caused the megacap rout? And you think that's "clearly?"
Fabio falec
falec Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen  I feel that one trigger for the sell-off was that big banks (like SoftBank) have been discovered  betting with Options in favour of the US Market, and especially US Tech. Meanwhile credit for corporate and individuals has thigtened, velocity of money is at lowest levels ever. As well as the slope of the NDAQ in 2020 in the last wave of EWP is the same as the one we are in at the moment.  I enjoyed your article anyway!
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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Fabio falec Softbank lost credibility by being taken in and crippled by WeWork’s web of lies, deception and greed. Talk about a contraindicator.
Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Sep 06, 2020 9:11AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen it is clear when you have a brain and realize that tesla is offering 5B in new shares, tesla is not being listed on SP 500 anymore, Tesla did stock split. Again, it is clear when you have a brain
Christopher Mazur
Christopher Mazur Sep 06, 2020 9:09AM ET
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Level of the analysis, good for retail level investors ...
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 9:09AM ET
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Thanks, Cristopher.
RaJa Kayani
RaJa Kayani Sep 06, 2020 8:58AM ET
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Thank you
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 8:58AM ET
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You got it, Raja!
Rosta Pilny
Raasta Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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Thanks Pinchas. I would pay attention to the SoftBank narrative. Same could be true for other big players that very likely manipulate whole market. Might be your "old school" analysis is still working, just couldn't handle heavy manipulation.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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The premise of my analysis is that it is timeless, as it incorporates human behavior which never changes. It isn't a crystal ball. It just provides a trajectory that historically follows through more than not. That is all. A reversal by definition undoes the previous trend. That isn't the failure of technical analysis but it's recalibrating.
Ben Webb
Ben Webb Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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Very well said, a thought process I can actually get behind here.
Ben Webb
Ben Webb Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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Very well said, a thought process I can actually get behind here.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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Ben Webb  Cool.
Rosta Pilny
Raasta Sep 06, 2020 8:53AM ET
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We are at the same page. Old school is meant positively. As you mentioned previously, we are in unprecedented times and "previously valid" patterns must be checked again.
Hadi Rosli
Hadi Rosli Sep 06, 2020 8:24AM ET
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Great!
Luna Ley
Luna Ley Sep 06, 2020 8:15AM ET
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Good analysis, thank you!
 
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