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I wish I could say that the clearly impressive trend from the peak until now in CPI and PPI is sustainable.
However, I am more inclined to say “trough” with more chance of rising inflation numbers going forward rather than the chance of inflation falling further.
Here are some of the top reasons why:
We like to let the charts be our guide. Here are a few relevant ones.
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) is the ETF for many grain and soft commodities. In a bullish phase, underperforming the SPY and momentum is flat at this point, not flashing any major concerns as a whole ETF basket. But not to be ignored either.
GLD ETF is testing a potential return to a bullish phase if clears the 50-DMA. On par in performance or leadership with the SPY. Momentum is in a bit of a bearish divergence versus price. Should GLD start to outperform SPY, the first real sign of risk off and potential spike in inflation?
Silver and Silver to Gold Ratio. Most interesting and alarming of the 3 charts. Price confirms SLV is back in an uptrend. And the Leadership clearly shows iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) outperforming GLD, which, if sustains, is a huge warning of inflationary factors ahead. Momentum in our Real Motion indicator is also in a bull phase, with momentum on the rise.
We love a good re-set. Next week the July 6-month calendar range will do just that. We will have a range to look at which, after this month’s moves thus far, should be really interesting to see.
Which instruments will break out or down, and which will stay trading between the top and bottom of the range?
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple of FOMC members say something "dovish." You know,...
The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. But the bearish forecasts have fallen flat as output has remained positive. GDP...
Stocks finished flat, with the S&P 500 falling just six bps. Most of the weaknesses yesterday came in the equal-weighted S&P 500, with the RSP ETF falling by almost 85...
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