USD/CAD Eyes Canada, U.S. Job Reports

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher)CurrenciesJan 06, 2023 05:45AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/usdcad-eyes-canada-us-job-reports-200634089

USD/CAD Eyes Canada, U.S. Job Reports

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) | Jan 06, 2023 05:45AM ET

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USD/CAD

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The Canadian dollar edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.36%. The first week of the new year has been busy. The Canadian dollar sparkled on Wednesday and climbed 1.4%, but has since pared most of those gains.

Canada and the US will wrap up the week with the December employment reports, which could mean some volatility in the North American session. Canada’s job creation in recent months has not impressed, with the exception of a massive gain of 108,300 in October. This was followed by a marginal gain of 10,100 in November, and December is expected to be even smaller, with an estimate of 8,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to inch higher to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. Canada also releases Ivey PMI, which has been stagnant over the past two months, just above the 50.0 threshold which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is projected to drop to 51.0 for December, down from 51.4 in November.

In the US, the focus will be on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Unemployment claims and other employment indicators show that the labor market remains resilient and there is a strong demand for workers despite a slowing economy. The ADP employment report, although not considered a reliable precursor to NFP, jumped to 235,000 in December, crushing the previous reading of 127,000 and the estimate of 150,000. The markets expect NFP to move in the opposite direction, with an estimate of 200,000, down from 263,000 in November.

A soft NFP release would be an indication that the labor market may finally be weakening. For the Fed, this would be good news, as it believes that the labor market must soften in order for inflation to fall. For the markets, always hoping for a dovish pivot, a weak NFP would likely raise speculation that the Fed may be close to winding up its current tightening cycle, and this could translate into the US dollar losing ground.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3628. Above, there is resistance at 1.3709
There is support at 1.3546 and 1.3476

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

5.00%

May 03, 2023

ECB

3.50%

May 04, 2023

BOE

4.25%

May 11, 2023

SNB

1.50%

Jun 22, 2023

RBA

3.60%

Apr 04, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Apr 12, 2023

RBNZ

4.75%

May 24, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Apr 28, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Apr 28, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Apr 03, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

May 03, 2023

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USD/CAD Eyes Canada, U.S. Job Reports

USD/CAD Technical

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