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US Unemployment has been on a Rise. What to Expect Next?

Published 07/04/2024, 06:32 AM

Fed officials are paying close attention to the labor market. Unemployment has been steadily rising for the last 3 months. However, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.0%, repeating the level of the previous month. If the NFP report comes out below market expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the probability of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase.

  • The US Department of Labor will release its report on Friday, the 5th of July. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have declined to 190,000 in June. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.0%.
  • Since the beginning of the year, the interest of financial market participants has increasingly shifted towards data on the US labor market, which has a great impact on the exchange rate of the dollar.
  • In the previous month, the dollar index rose to 105.85 points.

On the 5th of July, the US Labor Department is due to submit another report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. According to experts' expectations, the number of people employed will decrease to 190,000 in June, despite the fact that in May this figure was at the level of 272,000. Meanwhile, according to forecasts, the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.0%. The US Federal Reserve is already receiving positive signals to reduce inflation, and unemployment data combined with NFP may strengthen sentiment in the direction of lowering the interest rate in the coming months. As a result, a change in the interest rate will have a strong impact on the entire financial market and investor sentiment. On Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings data showed an increase of 221,000 from the previous month to 8.140 million in May 2024, exceeding expectations. This data provides a positive signal for a potential reduction in unemployment. Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $34.91 in May 2024.

The US unemployment rate reached a two-year high, hitting 4.0% in May 2024, the lowest level in more than two years. Analysts believe that the unemployment rate in June will remain at the May level of 4.0%.

"The increase in job openings could help address the rising unemployment issue and, consequently, inflation," said Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa.

"The rise in unemployment amid increasing job openings indicates that the available jobs do not meet the population's expectations. Thus, the labor market is experiencing a cooling," he added.

Over the past month, the US Dollar Index increased by 1.17% to 105.85 points. If the support level of 104 points is breached, further decline in the US Dollar Index to 101.9 points can be expected. However, if the upward trend since the beginning of the year continues and solidifies above the 106.5 level, market sentiment will favor US dollar buyers.

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