Breaking News

SPY Trends And Influencers December 8, 2018

By Dragonfly Capital (Gregory W. Harmon)Stock MarketsDec 09, 2018 12:03AM ET
SPY Trends And Influencers December 8, 2018
By Dragonfly Capital (Gregory W. Harmon)   |  Dec 09, 2018 12:03AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

SPX Monthly Chart
SPX Monthly Chart

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators noted with 1 month left in the year equities had given up most or all of their gains for the year, but were looking to start December moving higher. Perhaps a Santa Claus rally could repair some of the damage. Elsewhere looked for Gold (GLD (NYSE:GLD)) to consolidate in the short term while Crude Oil (USO (NYSE:USO)) paused in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was resuming the path higher while US Treasuries (TLT) bounced in their downtrend.

The Shanghai Composite (ASHR) was resuming its path lower while Emerging Markets (EEM) paused in their downtrend. Volatility (VXX) looked to remain elevated but stable, putting light pressure on equities. The equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, all showed great strength on the week and looked to continue that into December. On the longer scale the QQQ had the most work to do to reverse the downtrend, while the IWM and SPY (NYSE:SPY) had stopped the bleeding for now.

The week played out with Gold climbing to nearly 6 month highs while Crude Oil chopped around in a 4 range near the recent lows. The US Dollar held in a tight range drifting slightly lower while Treasuries continued their bounce higher. The Shanghai Composite popped early and then faded the rest of the week while Emerging Markets made a higher high before pulling back.

Volatility fell back Monday but rose all week, ending at a 5 week closing high, and adding downward pressure to the equity markets. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week moving higher but by Tuesday lost there momentum and dropped continuing to lows Thursday before bouncing. they could not hold though and closed at or below those Thursday lows to end the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

SPY Daily, SPY

The SPY was rising off of a retest of the October lows when the week started. It gapped higher Monday to near the 100 day SMA, where it has stalled twice since the October drop. And it stalled there again. Tuesday it closed the gap and then kept moving lower through the 20 day SMA. A gap down Thursday was closed although it gave back that entire move Friday for a third touch at the October low and closed there.

It was an incredibly ugly week after so much promise the prior week. The daily chart shows the RSI pulling back from a touch at 60, failing again to move into bullish territory. While the MACD made a higher high, but stayed negative, and closed the week trying to cross down.

On the weekly timeframe there is now 2 month support with the near bearish Marubozu candle touching it, and the 200 week SMA approaching. The RSI on this timeframe failed and reversed at the mid line with the MACD continuing lower. There is support lower at 263 and 261 followed by 257.50. Resistance above comes at 265 and 269 then 271.40 and 272.50. Broad Consolidation Following Pullback.

SPY Weekly, SPY

With only 2 full weeks left in the trading year equities cannot shake out of this pullback and some sectors look as they may be worsening. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to move higher while Crude Oil is poised to bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate while US Treasuries move up in a short term trend. The Shanghai Composite continues to show signs of a possible consolidation inits pullback with Emerging Markets continuing their long term downtrend.

Volatility looks to remain above recent ranges and possibly poised to move higher, adding pressure to equity prices. The equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, responded by reversing their recent mini recoveries and turning lower. The IWM looks the worst as it is now resuming a downtrend while the QQQ is next in a short term downward channel, with the SPY holding in a consolidation range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

Original post

SPY Trends And Influencers December 8, 2018

Related Articles

SPY Trends And Influencers December 8, 2018

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email