S&P 500: Technical Rebound Faces Bigger Tests Ahead

Published 01/22/2026, 01:47 AM

Stocks finished higher on Wednesday, reclaiming some of their losses on January 20, with the S&P 500 hitting the 78.6% retracement level of its Friday closing price. Well, there is not much to say at this point other than the market bounced from Tuesday. It is hard to say more than that at this point.S&P 500 Chart

Much of what we saw likely stemmed from hedges unwinding as fears over Greenland subsided. Meanwhile, the VIX 1-Day closed at 12, so there isn’t much vol to crush at the open today, even following the PCE report.VIX 1-Day-Daily Chart

The only problem is whether Greenland was the true cause of the market decline on Monday; not doubt it played a role, but the bigger question is how much the sell-off in JGBs the night before had to do with it.

10-Yr JGB rates fell by 8 bps in Japan on Wednesday, but as far as I know, nothing really changed, aside from some nervousness from government officials. The true test will come when the BOJ meeting is concluded on Friday.JGB 10-Yr-Daily Chart

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