Iran rejects U.S. war proposal, says no talks before conditions met
Is the “miracle” of one of the most overvalued stock markets in the history of the United States finally coming to a well-deserved end? Does valuation finally matter?
Most important of all, if the wings of Icarus & the SP500 melt, what does this mean for the mighty miners of supreme money gold?
Some exciting insight into these matters, the CAPE/Shiller ratio chart for the SP500. On this long-term chart, the incredible overvaluation of the US stock market is obvious.
All that’s needed to bring this house of cards down is a catalyst.
From a technical standpoint, the catalyst could be a collapse in the ADL (advance/decline line). Note how the latest rally in the Dow hasn’t been confirmed by it on this long-term monthly chart.
That’s a significant amber light for the market and it appears that previously savvy institutional investors have morphed into “price chasers”.
Leftist media outlet CNBC looks ever-more like an entity from an Orwell book:
It should be obvious to even the most loyal Democrat that most CNBC political “news” is anti-Trump propaganda. The stock market is hailed as representative of the great financial health of the average citizen, while basic food and shelter are out of reach for millions who have been fatally impaled by the government’s crazed obsession with vile fiat and debt.
When the market falls hard, as it has this morning, the tumble is called a “minor dip” and all dips are trumpeted as fabulous buys.
It’s clearly a house of cards but what does it all mean for gold, silver, and the miners? While Goldman’s record on the stock market is a bit spotty, Morgan Stanley has made some stellar calls…
Including calling the top of the 2008 stock market with a “full house” sell signal right at the top.
What’s exciting for gold and silver bugs is that they are incredibly bullish on Asia… where citizens wisely buy lots of gold to celebrate good economic and stock market times.
The awesome FXI chart. A breakout from a massive base pattern appears imminent and stock market enthusiasts can consider owning some of this ETF… for life! I’ll also note that the CAPE ratio on the Chinese stock market is under 20, versus above 40 for the SP500.
I don’t think the US market will begin to collapse until 2026, but when it does, the tumble could be much greater than Goldman anticipates, unfolding as a kind of hybrid of the 1966 and 1929 events.
Significant funds should then flow out of the US market and into both the Asian stock markets and gold.
A daily focus on the big picture is critical for investors as inflation, tariffs, the 2021-2025 war cycle, a wildly overvalued stock market, debt ceiling horror, and empire transition dominate the investing landscape.
A look at an intriguing daily chart for gold. Gold is breaking upside from a nice bull wedge… and doing it while the key 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator flashes a buy signal as it rises from the overbought zone.
This year, the traditional “summer doldrums” were replaced with the biggest rally in years and while gold likely now consolidates until the end of the year…
The range is large, and traders can make significant profits by buying the lower part of the projected range ($4000-$3800) and selling the upper part ($4300-$4500).
The GDX daily chart. It’s retraced about 50% of its gains from the rally that began at $3500 for gold and Stochastics is finally oversold. In a nutshell, it’s a decent place for gold stock enthusiasts to buy.
The miners feel solid, a look at a long-term chart of significance. The surge to $85 for GDX has turned the entire $67-$55 area into one of the biggest buy zones in the history of gold stocks. The miners could “range trade” between about $65 and $85 until year-end, but from there a glorious rally to my $110 target zone seems likely to occur.
Here’s an interesting question: Is there a canary in the gold mine? Well, there technically is one. Barrick has finally come to life and I’m projecting it becomes an institutional darling in the gold bull era.
There’s a broadening pattern on this daily chart, which suggests some “loss of control”. That could relate to underlying problems with the US stock market that are close to coming home to roost. This broadening pattern is likely to be resolved to the upside in late 2025 or early 2026.
A look at my favourite valuation chart for Barrick itself, the mindboggling Barrick versus gold chart. The stock topped out in the 1990s and is rising from a nice base pattern now. The call for the gold stocks train must clearly be…. All aboard!
