Oil prices surge to two-week winning streak as Iran supply fears grip markets
Silver is holding firm, but a deeper wobble in risk assets could alter the tone fast.
- Haven flows lifting silver
- Not a pure defensive asset like gold
- Broader risk weakness would test haven status
The Haven Question
Silver has held together remarkably well given the escalation in the Middle East. Despite the headlines and the uncertainty, the price hasn’t broken structure or traded in a disorderly way. It hasn’t looked like panic. If anything, it’s looked controlled. That in itself raises a more important question.
When does silver stop behaving like a haven and start trading like the high-beta risk asset it has increasingly become? It can move with gold while this is about headlines and positioning, but if volatility in broader risk markets begins to build, it’s difficult to see it remaining insulated for long.
Geopolitics isn’t the only thing traders need to assess. Private credit concerns, questions around bank asset quality and AI-driven displacement of white collar workers were all weighing on sentiment late last week. They’ve been overshadowed for now, but they haven’t disappeared. If those risks begin to drive more meaningful weakness across equities, FX or crypto, silver is more likely to respond as a risk asset than a defensive one.
The rebound from the February lows looks more like positioning reset than anything fundamental. There was heavy retail participation in China before the late January and early February unwind, and once volatility settled and weak hands were cleared, the price began printing higher highs again, accelerating into the reopening of Chinese markets following Lunar New year holidays. We also saw a sizeable bid emerge on Friday during a broader risk-off session on Wall Street, suggesting there was at least some element of geopolitical hedging taking place into the weekend.
So far on Monday, safe haven flows have been evident, with silver briefly hitting fresh multi-week highs. But how long that persists is the bigger question.
Bullish Until Proven Otherwise
Source: Tradingview
On the four-hourly chart, the price action is undeniably bullish. We’ve seen a clear series of higher highs, and while RSI(14) hasn’t managed to do the same, it remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also crossed above the signal line, confirming the bullish message.
Importantly, the price has continued to respect known levels. It was rejected above $95.89 earlier today but found support at $92.20, which was the high set on February 4. Those are the levels to watch. If the price remains contained within that band, there’s your range to trade.
A sustained break above $95.89 opens the door to $102. Above that, there’s little to speak of before the record highs, aside from the 78.6% retracement of the Jan–Feb flush. $112.50 may also draw attention given the price traded through it frequently either side of the blow-off top but rarely managed to make the move stick.
On the downside, a close beneath $92.20 would weaken the bullish structure, while a break below $86 support would invalidate it entirely, swinging directional risks sideways to lower.