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Silvergate and SVB Saga Triggers Crash in Regional Banking ETF

ByMichele Schneider
Published 03/10/2023, 12:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

We could call this “3 Days to All Hell broke loose.”

We could call this “We told you so.”

We could call this, “Welcome to the incredible forecasting of the Economic Modern Family.”

We could call this, “Hello delusional semiconductors.”

Whatever you wish to call it, the Mar. 6 post called Retail and Regional Banks Will Call the Shots was heard.

KRE-Weekly Chart

From the Mar. 6 Daily:

“The higher rates on T-Bills, CDs, and other bank deposits have been attractive for consumers and businesses.

However, that is costly for the US banking industry, already experiencing a slowdown in lending.

And as we know, the Regional Banks character is called Prodigal Son for this very reason-first they (banks) hoard your capital and pay you very little interest, and then they come back asking for forgiveness.”

Here is what Regional Banks looked like 3 days ago.

KRE-Mar6-Weekly Chart

Closing at $59.55 on March 6, our warning that the Regional Banks were underperforming the stronger sectors like Semiconductors and could haunt the recent rally is the power of the Economic Modern Family.

So why did SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) crash hard? The nail today was the SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ:SIVB) news and Silvergate (NYSE:SI) saga. SIVB fell 60%, while SI fell 42%.

SIVB sold off a $21 billion bond portfolio for a huge loss to shore up liquidity. SI announced liquidation and a wind-down impact from the SBF debacle. And this is without the strong possibility of more fallout.

One key takeaway.

We like to see all the Economic Modern Family firing in the same direction. Since their creation in 2014, we have often warned that a family in disarray is one that gives us the ultimate risk-off signal.

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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY): Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-390 pivotal
  • iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM): Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-182 pivotal
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA): Unconfirmed Distribution Phase-324 pivotal
  • Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): 284 big support 300 pivotal
  • S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE): Broke the 80-month MA-1st time since Covid
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH): 240 pivotal 248 key resistance
  • iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT): Unconfirmed Warning Phase 230 pivotal
  • iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB): 125-135 trading range
  • S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT): 64.00 the 200-DMA make or break

Latest comments

Short S&P 500 at ~ 3950, cover at 3800, short DJIA at 32400, cover at 31500. Those are the trades of the day.
greedy and bad risk management bankers
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