Daily Forex Market Preview, 03/10/2018
The US Dollar was seen rising to intraday highs before easing back by the end of the day. Economic data on the day showed that the RBA held its monetary policy meeting. Interest rates were unchanged for the twenty-sixth consecutive month at 1.50%.
Data from the UK showed that construction PMI fell to 52.1 in September. This was slower than the estimates of 52.8 and down from 52.9 in August.
Data today will see the final services PMI from the Eurozone. The services sector is expected to remain unchanged as economists forecast a print of 54.7. This marks the same level of activity as the month before. Later in the day, retail sales data is expected to show a 0.2% increase in activity. This would reverse the previous month’s 0.2% decline.
The UK’s services sector is forecast to ease to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August.
The NY trading session will see the release of the ADP private payroll figures.
Estimates show that private payrolls might have increased 187k during the month in August.
The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report is expected to come out later. Estimates put activity in the services sector at 58.1. This marks a slightly slower pace of increase compared to 58.5 previously.
The remainder of the NY session will see speeches from other Fed members including Brainard and Mester followed by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.
EUR/USD intraday analysis
EUR/USD (1.1580):
The EUR/USD fell to a fresh two month low yesterday before pulling back. Price action is seen rebounding off the support level at 1.1547 – 1.1525 region at the time of writing. As long as the support holds, we expect to look at the rebound pushing the common currency back to the resistance level of 1.1651. We expect the EUR/USD to maintain this range heading into this Friday’s payrolls report. In the near term, a breakout above 1.1651 could trigger further gains pushing the euro back toward the previously held resistance level of 1.1745 – 1.1718.
GBP/USD intraday analysis
GBP/USD (1.2995):
The GBP/USD currency pair weakened on the back of a dismal construction PMI report. With price action clearing the support level at 1.3054 – 1.3028, the cable is expected to continue the decline. In the near term, we expect the GBP/USD to test the breached support area for resistance. As long as this support holds, the GBP/USD could be seen pushing lower. The next downside target is seen coming in at 1.2808. To the upside, the bias shifts if the currency pair manages to break out strongly above 1.3054 – 1.3028.
XAU/USD intraday analysis
XAU/USD (1207.05):
Gold prices extended the gains as price action posted a significant rebound of the 1183.30 support. The rebound pushed gold prices above the resistance level of 1197.50. Price action is expected to approach the next main resistance level at 1212.05 eventually. Any declines are expected to stall near 1197.50 which could now act as support. Overall, gold prices are expected to remain within the range for the short term.