📖 Your Q2 Earnings Guide: Discover the Stocks ProPicks AI Highlights to Jump Post-EarningsRead more

Quarterly Closes Point To More Ahead

Published 04/02/2021, 02:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
USD/CAD
-
CAD/JPY
-
BTC/USD
-
ETH/USD
-

by Adam Button

As risk on is empowerd ahead on the 1st day of Q2, let's assess a few items. The euro closed Q1 at its lowest since November among those crucial charts closing at extremes. OPEC+agreed on gradual hikes. On the day and on the quarter, CAD was the best performer and the yen lagged. Below is the latest Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio chart. 

BTC-ETH Chart

Quarter-end was a typically messy affair that saw some back and forth nonsensical 30-40 pip moves throughout the FX market. What stands out is how many charts finished at the extremes – something that's generally a continuation sign.

Given that we're right in the middle of the recover/reopening trade that's a good thing to keep in mind into Q2. CAD/JPY was the best trade in the quarter and it touched a fresh extreme on Wednesday. A number of currencies also hit new highs against the yen and Swiss franc. Both of these lagged badly in the quarter in a reminder that yield differentials are extremely powerful. EUR/USD also closed on the lows as Macron announced a one-month lockdown for France and the recovery fund efforts plod along.

Thursday's rally is interesting because nonfarm payrolls will be released Friday with the market closed. One would expect some risk being pulled off the table in stocks and bonds. Yet we saw little in the way of portfolio rebalancing flows.

OPEC+ Reaches Gradual Agreement

OPEC+ reached a deal to lift production gradually into Q2. This may help prices on the premise that Saudi sees robust demand ahead and has vowed to closely monitor production. The question then remains that of compliance. Will all members join in these gradual production hikes? Who and how much will they cheat?  Trendline resistance stands at 61.55/60, followed by the right shoulder near 62.50/70.  

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.