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10-Year Treasury: Bullish Crossover Could Be In Progress

Published 08/04/2016, 12:09 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The 10-Year Treasury's advance yesterday has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bullish crossovers and a bullish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close above 1.55% would generate a cycle low signal and indicate that the alpha low (AL) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on July 29.

TNX Daily

Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves below the previous AL at 1.34% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended rally phase that moves well above the last STCH at 1.63% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation.

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