Opening Bell: Market Rally Struggles Despite Fed Assurance; Bitcoin Stabilizes

• US Treasuries on the cusp of reversal if investors believe Fed comments
• Dollar, gold wait on yields’ trajectory
• Oil rallies

Key Events

US futures on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are almost flat and European stocks were little changed in trading on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried once again to talk down investors during his testimony to the US Congress yesterday. 

This morning, Bitcoin continued to recover. 

Global Financial Affairs

In Europe, the STOXX 600 Index was slightly lower as cyclical stocks, including energy and mining companies, continued to lead but failed to offset a retreat in defensive shares.

An Asian advance earlier today was tempered by a drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225.

This morning, US futures failed to find momentum after the underlying gauges climbed for two consecutive days. On Tuesday, during the Wall Street session, shares reacted positively to Powell repeating the mantra that the current inflation level, the highest in 13 years, is transient.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note pared the recent rebound.

10-year Treasuries Daily

At the time of writing, yields had settled precisely below previous lows, demonstrating how support turned to resistance. That line also happens to be the bottom of a descending triangle.

Treasury traders are demonstrating their hesitance as they are unable to decide whether or not they trust that the Fed won't change its interest rate plans again. Should yield falls below 1.4%, we can expect them to keep falling, as investors amass Treasuries—demonstrating a lack of faith in the Fed.

The dollar declined for the third day. The price may be forming a large H&S continuation pattern or a descending triangle.

Dollar Index Daily

If the greenback falls below 89.50, we can expect it to go much, much lower. On the other hand, a climb above 93.50 may drive the US currency even higher, after completing a double-bottom, resuming the upward trajectory of the massive falling wedge since the March 2020 peak.

Gold investors are equally conflicted.

Gold Daily

This clash of opinions is manifested by the potential massive H&S bottom, supported by the long-term uptrend line, or the falling channel.

Bitcoin rebounded after dipping briefly below $30,000, as bulls prove resilient amid a barrage of negative news.

Bitcoin Daily

The cryptocurrency climbed for the second day for the first time in over a week, allowing the possibility of a continued rise to the top of range.

Oil rose past $73 on data demonstrating another decline in stockpiles, confirming the bullish outlook of a tightening market.

Oil Daily

WTI prices cleared a bearish Evening Star pattern, suggesting the return-move to a bullish triangle might be over and traders are prepared to increase risk.

Up Ahead

• On Thursday the Bank of England interest rate decision will be released.
• US Initial jobless claims are released on Thursday. 
• The Fed releases the results of stress tests on the largest US banks on Thursday. 

Market Moves

Stocks

• The STOXX 600 was little changed
• Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%
• Futures on the NASDAQ 100 rose 0.1%
• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1%

Currencies

• The Dollar Index was little changed
• The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1923
• The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 110.89 per dollar
• The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 6.4883 per dollar
• The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3974

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 1.48%
• Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.16%
• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.79%

Commodities

• Brent crude rose 0.7% to $75.30 a barrel
• Spot gold was little changed