We argue that, with a more bond-friendly global environment and a Riksbank priced too aggressively, it is a good opportunity to take more risk in Sweden. We recommend extensions along the covered bond curve (more risk, both credit and duration). Buy SHYP1578 (Sep 2016) and sell SHYP1576 (Mar 2015).
We have a 850 3M forecast for the EUR/SEK and expect further SEK performance during the autumn. However, we are a bit reluctant after the latest strong performance to add further to long SEK positions at the current level. We prefer a cautious approach and would like to wait for some profit taking before adding to new long SEK positions.
The monetary policy report from Norges Bank came with a dovish twist and makes the NGB 2017 auction attractive this week, both from a Bund-spread and a currency perspective.
Given the relatively modest reaction in the rates market after the Norges Bank meeting we argue that the NOK is oversold. Both relative rates and our short-term financial model indicate that the EUR/NOK is trading at a too high level.
In Denmark securities statistics and foreign portfolio investment data are expected to show that Danish bonds remained popular with foreigners in August.
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Norges Bank In Focus And Swedish Inflation Bottoming Out
Published 09/24/2013, 12:44 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Norges Bank In Focus And Swedish Inflation Bottoming Out
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