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NASDAQ 100: Next Push Higher Before Larger Correction Hits

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Market OverviewAug 18, 2020 03:25PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100-next-push-higher-before-larger-correction-hits-200534452
NASDAQ 100: Next Push Higher Before Larger Correction Hits
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Aug 18, 2020 03:25PM ET
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Over the past two weeks, I have kept you abreast of the Nasdaq 100’s most likely path forward (see my articles here, and here).

Last week, I showed I was looking for ideally $11,600-11,700 (dotted green and blue arrows), and now, one week later, the index is starting to get there as it is currently trading at $11,380+. The index could even move as high as $11,880, but for now, I find that less likely.

Figure 1. NDX100 Daily Candlestick Chart With EWP Count

NASDAQ Daily Chart.
NASDAQ Daily Chart.

With the price action over the last weeks moving along as anticipated, I still see no reason to change my overall point of view unless the Nasdaq now closes below last Friday’s low of $11,107. Thus, as I wrote two weeks ago, with a few very minor tweaks:

“… once this (green) 5th wave completes, it completes a larger five-waves up (red i, ii, iii, iv, and v). This pattern would fit well with the more and more negatively diverging technical indicators (red dotted arrows). The index is moving higher on less momentum, and eventually, the index will catch up with this divergence and start a more significant correction: black wave-4. Once the index reaches the red [to green] target zone, I expect it to complete black wave-3. Then, as said, a more significant correction should unfold, ideally back to $10,385-9,825 with the upper end preferred because, in bull markets, the upside surprises and the downside disappoints. From that ideal [larger degree] wave-4 target zone, I anticipate the last black wave-5 up to new ATHs. [This wave-5] will, in turn, complete the impulse up off the March 23 low as well as the entire bull since 2009, possibly since 2002.”

Thus upside reward is, in my humble opinion, at this stage, 1.9 to 4.4%, and downside risk 8.8 to 13.6%. As usual, know your time frame, trading/investing style and always act accordingly.

NASDAQ 100: Next Push Higher Before Larger Correction Hits
 

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NASDAQ 100: Next Push Higher Before Larger Correction Hits

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Comments (13)
Robert Casperson
Robert Casperson Sep 26, 2020 8:24PM ET
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Not perfect, but this wave really panned out well. Do you think that because of the overshoot on GREEN 5 to ~12k, bottom is in on a slightly higher support, or do you believe the pattern will follow through to the 10k zone as your chart depicts? I'm still learning EWPs but have found they are a great tool so far. thanks again for your analysis!
Király Roland
Király Roland Aug 21, 2020 4:29PM ET
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Great work, Curious how this will work out. 10 person can draw 10 different elliott wave charts with 10 different results.
Mats Tjernberg
Mats Tjernberg Aug 21, 2020 10:30AM ET
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Super, good work! What about the dotted red line continuing down from the ideal wave 4?
Chris Poulos
Chris Poulos Aug 20, 2020 12:47AM ET
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theres not going to be another leg up. if you notice there has been some sharp selling in risk currency pairs ...  aud/jpy in particular is a bellwether for market sentiment. pay attention because it looks like the front wave is heading for the doors. certainly the market will head south after biden wins and i dont see a lot of upside before that happens.
William Turri
William Turri Aug 19, 2020 7:33PM ET
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what are you talking about, markets don't go down, they only go up
Solomon Lalani
Solomon Aug 19, 2020 6:05PM ET
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Thanks, Doc.  Do you still see 11700 (weekly BB top) before correction? We have Philly Fed, jobless data for tomorrow, and then all-important GDP reading on Tuesday
Ahmed Omer
Ahmed Omer Aug 19, 2020 10:48AM ET
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Thanks for the amazing analysis.
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Aug 19, 2020 10:48AM ET
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thank you!
NSDQWatcher NSDQWatcher
NSDQWatcher Aug 19, 2020 6:28AM ET
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Sounds great but the Nasdaq will continue higher for the forseeable.
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Aug 19, 2020 6:28AM ET
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on what basis do you make these unsubstantiated claims?
andrew mccorkle
andrew mccorkle Aug 19, 2020 3:35AM ET
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on Nov
R Wajahat Izaat Arthur
R Wajahat Izaat Arthur Aug 18, 2020 11:19PM ET
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let the pull back begin!
Max German
7Max7 Aug 18, 2020 6:23PM ET
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makes sense, only thing is when will fed see in that infinite qe is also infinite debt and stops it, that day/week will mark the crash so the drop will come but i think timeframe will be a lot later, election coming maybe on year end like 2018 who knows, supportive is all 3 us indices +china + nikkei are out their own channel a correction is needed
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Aug 18, 2020 6:23PM ET
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that's a question and discussion for another time ;-)
Chart Harmonics
Chart Harmonics Aug 18, 2020 6:21PM ET
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Excellent TA with well explained waves. Thank you.
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Aug 18, 2020 6:21PM ET
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thank you! just trying to do my very best!
Mike Lee
Mike Lee Aug 18, 2020 5:30PM ET
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Thanks Dr., youve been very accurate with your articles and charts.  Im your new fan.  Do you have an update on Tesla?  Thanks... your follower, cheers
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Aug 18, 2020 5:30PM ET
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thank you. TESLA is up later this week. stay tuned!
 
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