Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

NASDAQ 100 Update: Where to Next? And What Then?

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsAug 04, 2020 03:19PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100-update-where-to-next-and-what-then-200532964
NASDAQ 100 Update: Where to Next? And What Then?
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Aug 04, 2020 03:19PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Yesterday, using the Elliott Wave Principle, I showed where I expected the S&P 500 to go to over the next few days with a smaller top at around 3310-3320. See my article here.

So far, the index reached 3303 this morning—close enough?

With that in mind, allow me to use the same technique to assess what is most likely next for the Nasdaq 100. It is one of the few indexes (together with the NASDAQ and SOX) to make almost daily new all-time highs. I state "most likely" because nothing is ever for sure in the markets. It is all about probabilities of possibilities. But, by using the time-tested EWP and associated price-levels for each wave, one can get a reasonably accurate idea about the market's next few moves.

Figure 1. NDX100 daily candlestick chart with EWP count.

Like the S&P 500, the EWP suggests an impulse wave higher to ideally $11,295 is under way, but it can extend to as high as $11,750. Impulse moves always consist of five waves: in this case, green 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, of the red wave-iv low.

For now, the index is rapidly closing in on the ideal (green) wave-3 target level, and we should expect a brief one- to two-day pullback soon for (green) wave-4 before (green) wave-5 takes hold as shown with the green dotted arrows. Once this 5th wave completes, it completes a larger five-waves up (red i, ii, iii, iv, and v). This would fit well, with the more negatively diverging technical indicators (red dotted arrows). The index is moving higher on less momentum, and eventually the index will catch up with this divergence and start a more significant correction: black wave-4.

Please note how red wave-iii and wave-iv topped and bottomed, respectively, in the ideal target zones I forecast daily using EWP and Fibonacci-extension and -retrace levels. There is no randomness here or magic, but simply a market following mathematically precise and universal principles.

Once the index reaches the red target zone, I expect it to complete black wave-3. Then, as said, a more significant correction should unfold, ideally back to $10,385-9825 with the upper end preferred because,
in bull markets, the upside surprises and the downside disappoints. From that ideal wave-4 target zone, I anticipate the last black wave five up to new ATHs. It will, in turn, complete the impulse up off the March 23 low as well as the entire bull since 2009, possibly since 2002.

But let us not run too far ahead of ourselves, as that larger top will still be months out from now and instead focus on the current rally to around $11,295-11,750 first. Then we can see what happens from there and set our sails for the next two more significant moves: down and up.

NASDAQ 100 Update: Where to Next? And What Then?
 

Related Articles

NASDAQ 100 Update: Where to Next? And What Then?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (2)
Eric Erlandson
Eric Erlandson Aug 07, 2020 11:30PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I appreciate your analyses. So does Friday’s pullback qualify as tne green 4 wave or are you anticipating a steeper pullback before heading up to green 5?
petey heeley
petey heeley Aug 04, 2020 10:12PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
QQQ  may have topped out at today's close ! Watch for a reversal causing an Island Top on the weekly charts !
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email